The 2024-25 Boston Celtics are looking to achieve one of the rarest feats in the NBA: winning back-to-back championships.
After going 64-18 in the regular season, the 2023-24 Celtics (comprising the exact same playoff rotation as this year's vintage) ran roughshod through the competition, going 16-3 during the playoffs en route to capturing the franchise's record-extending 18th title.
Celtics stars Jayson Tatum, Jrue Holiday, and Derrick White all suited up for the gold medal-winning Team USA men's basketball squad in the 2024 Paris Olympics over the summer, setting the stage for a bit of a title defense hangover.
Instead, Boston went 61-21 this year, finishing as the No. 2 seed in the Eastern Conference. The Celtics, if healthy, comprise probably the most formidable top eight in the East, even better than the 64-18 Cleveland Cavaliers' roster depth.
Several experts, in preparing their previews of these impending 2025 playoffs, picked Boston to return to the NBA Finals for the second straight time and the third time in four seasons. But many think that one club in particular will end their championship defense: the 68-14 Oklahoma City Thunder, guided by All-Stars Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Jalen Williams.
Here are several pessimistic Thunder-Celtics finals prognoses.
Kurt Helin, NBC Sports: Thunder over Celtics in seven games
"This may end faster than seven games — OKC is just not a good matchup for Boston," Helin opines. "This is the one team with the depth and versatility to match the Celtics, and I will trust the regular-season results and trust the Thunder’s role players to step up."
The big question for the Thunder is the scoring and creating of Gilgeous-Alexander's two highest-upside costars, small forward Williams and power forward Chet Holmgren.
Kevin Pelton, ESPN: Thunder over Celtics in seven games
"Here we go: the defending champs against the team that put together a historic regular season," Pelton writes. "The chess match of matchups in Celtics-Thunder would be worth the price of admission, with both teams capable of putting two bigs on the court or going small and switching across all five positions. I started the season picking Oklahoma City over Boston (let's not discuss my conference finals picks), and certainly the Thunder's regular season hasn't made me less confident in them."
Boston's health is also a serious question mark. 3-and-D center Kristaps Porzingis got hurt — twice — during the Celtics' title push last year, and is pretty much a walking injury concern despite being healthy right now.
This season, six-time All-Defensive Team guard Jrue Holiday and four-time All-Star small forward Jaylen Brown are both ailing heading into the playoffs. If neither player is close to his best self, the Celtics could be vulnerable.
Howard Beck, The Ringer: Thunder over Celtics
"That was my pick in October, and it still feels right, for the same reasons I listed then," Beck writes. "The Thunder have the talent and depth to win it all and young legs to help them get through the grind of the postseason. As deep and talented as the Celtics are, they’re showing some of the wear and tear that goes with a title defense (see Brown’s knee), and that alone could leave them vulnerable in June."
Brown's knee issue required a painkilling injection last week. Although his numbers haven't dropped off significantly, his defense is not quite at peak levels.
It's concerning that he's dealing with a lingering health problem even prior to the playoffs.
Rob Mahoney, The Ringer: Thunder over Celtics
"This really feels like OKC’s year," Mahoney asserts. "The defense, the depth, and a genuinely unstoppable superstar make for an awfully convincing case—even against the defending champs."
Oklahoma City is so talented that reigning Coach of the Year Mark Daigneault will likely have to sit rotation-level pieces for the entirety of the playoffs.
Boston, meanwhile, does have nine or 10 talented players it could use, but won't have to make nearly the same tough choices the Thunder will.
John Hollinger, The Athletic: Thunder over Celtics in six games
"I’m not sure this is a great matchup for the Celtics; the Thunder worked them over in both regular-season matchups, with Porziņģis and Holmgren each missing one of them," Hollinger opines. "As with the Cleveland series, Boston’s bigs’ ability to hold up in switches against elite guards feels like a key, except in this case, the ungraspable Gilgeous-Alexander adds another degree of difficulty. If the Thunder can force Boston to put two on the ball, the Celtics are in a very unnatural place; this isn’t a team built for trapping and forcing turnovers."
Dan Devine, Yahoo! Sports: Thunder over Celtics
"I took OKC over Boston in our preseason roundtable," Devin writes. "I’m not going to switch up now."
Devine may have been on to something. Oklahoma City has been the best two-way team this season, although that may be in part due to some of the aforementioned Celtics health and fatigue issues (with apologies to the Cavaliers).
