The scenarios allowing for Chicago Bears general manager Ryan Poles to trade up and draft running back Ashton Jeanty probably don't include going all the way up to fifth ahead of the Raiders.
No one can be certain until draft day but the cost could be so great at that point.
The draft/trade value chart says that kind of move requires one of their two second-round picks and their 10th overall pick, but second-round picks offer teams too much real value to quicklydeal them away if there are other sufficient options at a position later in the selection process.
Still, when the possibility of getting Jeanty is involved, trading up might simply be a matter of how far the Bears would be willing to go.
Conor Orr of Sports Illustrated released a mock draft on Tuesday and in it he has the Bears coming tantalizingly close to drafting Jeanty outright. He has Jeanty falling all the way to ninth and the Saints select him. It seems an unlikely scenario but does underscore the strength the Bears have in this draft.
While it would be a position the Saints could use help at, with Alvin Kamara turning 30 about the start of training camp, New Orleans is a team with numerous holes and no real way to fill many of them.
In this situation for the real world, the Bears or Dallas would most certainly have tried moving up to get the best running back in this draft and one many say is the best to be drafted since Saquon Barkley.
The mock draft Orr presents has the Saints take Jeanty and the Bears are left accepting a consolation prize of tackle Kelvin Banks Jr.
And while Banks is probably better than some of the internet draft trashers have suggested, it would be difficult to see how the Bears would sit on their hands and let Jeanty get to No. 9 without making a move.
The Panthers, at No. 8, would most certainly be a team the Bears would try to trade with if Jeanty began to fall past the Raiders. They could even try to go up to No. 7 and the Jets.
The Jets can use as much help in the trenches on both sides of the ball as they can get. The Panthers need defensive help at multiple secondary positions, if not wide receiver help.
A trade up with Carolina would net the Bears Jeanty and going up two spots should not require giving up their second-round pick. They could give up their third-rounder and maybe even get back a late pick in return with the chance to draft Jeanty, whether they traded with the Jets or with the Panthers.
The Jets' need at tackle might make them balk at trading back because tackle Armand Membou could be available to them at No. 7 but maybe not at No. 10. Then again, he could make it that far back. If not, Banks would be there and they could take the extra pick from the Bears and look at the other side of the line of scrimmage later.
It's only a mock draft, but it shows the powerful position to trade up the Bears have because they own three picks on Day 2 and are situated where they might be able to pursue a valued player at a need position.
There are limits for every team to making a deal to go up in the draft but it would be very difficult to imagine the Bears just sitting there as Jeanty comes within one pick, before they accept a player who might be the third- or fourth- best option in a short-armed crop of top tackles.
It's also difficult to imagine Jerry Jones sitting still to let a player who played his high school ball a stone's throw away from the House that Jerry Built without moving up to take him before No. 9.
Ultimately, any showdown at high noon between the Cowboys and the Bears over who moves up and takes Jeanty probably goes the Bears' way, because they have three picks in the first 41 and four in the first 72, while the Cowboys have one pick in the first 43 and three in the first 76. The Bears have more and better ammo.
And if you're thinking fourth round has some value, the Cowboys are just like the Bears—they don't have a fourth-round pick, and when they do pick in Round 5 it's after the Bears.
It's a lot to gather from one mock draft but it's a mock that does accurately portray the commanding position Poles has for this selection process, should he decide to wield it.
They can go after talent, but remember: There are always limits to how far someone will move up and the real value teams derive from lower-paid picks in Round 2 is always a consideration.
The Bears currently have seven second-rounders in their starting lineup, if you need proof of this.
