Alabama defeated Kentucky on Saturday to snap a two-game losing skid. The Crimson Tide can keep the positive momentum rolling tonight when Mississippi State visits Coleman Coliseum.
It went down to the wire when these teams squared off about a month ago, but Alabama narrowly escaped Starkville with an 88-84 victory. With the Bulldogs and Crimson Tide safely in the NCAA Tournament, quality seeding in the SEC Tournament is at stake in tonight’s game.
The top college basketball betting sites list Alabama as an 8.5-point favorite and the over/under is 170.5. Let’s get into my Mississippi State vs. Alabama predictions and best bets for this SEC clash.
Mississippi State vs. Alabama predictions and best bets
- Alabama -8.5: -105 at BetMGM Sportsbook
- Mark Sears over 20.5 points: -110 at Caesars Sportsbook
*Note: Odds are based on the best value our experts find as of publication; check lines closer to game time to ensure you get the best odds.
This SEC rivalry has been one-sided in recent years, as Alabama has beaten Mississippi State in seven straight meetings. The Bulldogs haven’t won in Tuscaloosa since 2016.
Mississippi State may have added motivation after falling short against unranked Oklahoma. Josh Hubbard leads the team with nearly 18 points per game, but the Bulldogs don’t have many high-level scorers beyond Hubbard. Only two other players average more than 10 points and this will be an issue against the highest-scoring team in college basketball.
According to KenPom, Alabama’s offense ranks third in adjusted efficiency, and no team has a higher 2-point field goal percentage (60.8). The Crimson Tide loves to launch 3-pointers, and the Bulldogs rank 299th nationally in 3-point percentage allowed.
Mississippi State struggles to sink shots from beyond the arc, while free-throw shooting is also a major weakness. The Bulldogs won’t be able to match the Crimson Tide’s scoring, which is why I expect Alabama to cover the spread.
I’m also taking Mark Sears to surpass his scoring prop. The SEC and NCAA tournaments are almost here, and Sears is heating up at the perfect time. He dropped a season-high 35 points last week against Missouri and followed up with a 30-point outing in the win over Kentucky.
Grant Nelson’s scoring has been down the last few weeks, which could be related to his appearance on the SEC injury report. Sears has picked up the slack, and that should continue against the Bulldogs.
Mississippi State vs. Alabama moneyline odds analysis
Why Alabama could win as the favorite
Best odds: -375 at DraftKings Sportsbook
Alabama was No. 2 in the AP poll a few weeks ago, but has fallen four spots after losing to Auburn and Missouri. The Tide got back on track last Saturday by beating Kentucky and must continue stacking wins to get the best seed possible in the SEC and NCAA tournaments.
Finding a way to slow down Hubbard will be crucial for Alabama. He recorded a career-high 38 points earlier this season when the Bulldogs fell short against the Crimson Tide. However, putting too much attention on Hubbard could lead to easy scoring opportunities for KeShawn Murphy and Claudell Harris Jr.
It would be a huge boost if Alabama came out firing early in the game. The Tide have started slow in three straight matchups and this was a major reason for falling short against Auburn and Missouri.
Why Mississippi State could win as the underdog
Best odds: +310 at Caesars Sportsbook
The Bulldogs are hitting the road for a second consecutive game, but playing outside of Starkville hasn’t been an issue for Chris Jans’ squad. Mississippi State is 6-3 straight up and 5-4 against the spread in road games.
Pushing tempo has led Alabama to commit an SEC-leading 13.3 turnovers per game. Mississippi State’s defense will be ready to capitalize when the Crimson Tide gets careless with the ball. The Bulldogs are excellent at forcing turnovers and have the 11th-best steal percentage in the nation.
Preventing Sears from getting to the basket will be crucial for Mississippi State. He went 11/11 on free throw attempts in Alabama’s last game and shot just under 50% from the field. When Sears attacks the rim, it creates opportunities for shooters like Aden Holloway and Chris Youngblood to let it fly from 3-point range.
