One of the central themes of the Miami Dolphins season in 2024 was “regression”. There was too much falling back to the pack in key statistics after a hot two-year start to Mike McDaniel’s innovative offense in South Florida. The Dolphins, amid all their strengths and weaknesses, are unique — but their identity betrayed them in 2024.
No team has run more 21 personnel in the NFL than the Dolphins since McDaniel’s arrival. Teams such as San Francisco and Baltimore serve as Miami’s rivals in this regard — but the Dolphins have spent approximately one-third of their entire offensive snaps since 2022 with two backs and one tight end on the field. Their 1,121 snaps out of 21 personnel over that time period are nearly 60 more than San Francisco, and Baltimore (743 snaps) is the only other team in the league with over 500 total snaps out of that personnel package.
Miami’s 21 personnel usage in 2024 faltered, especially compared to how dominant the package was in 2023. During Miami’s 11-6 campaign in 2023, the Dolphins posted the fourth-highest total EPA figure (36.05 EPA) out of 21 personnel of the last 20 years. The only teams to log a higher EPA out of 21 personnel over that period of time:
- 2017 New England Patriots (13-3, AFC Champions)
- 2013 New England Patriots (12-4, Conference Finalist)
- 2016 Atlanta Falcons (11-5, NFC Champions)
The Dolphins’ 126 points scored with that personnel grouping were tops among all teams in the league over that two-decade time period according to TruMedia. But the 21 personnel grouping took a nosedive in 2024. Miami went from the 4th highest EPA out of the personnel grouping to the 18th worst mark in 2024 out of nearly 600 qualifying teams. A drop of over 550 spots from one year to the next is, as you’d expect, a catastrophic failure in identity.
The biggest culprit of the lost EPA was not the intermittent absence of Tua Tagovailoa, either. Yes, Tagovailoa’s absence on injured reserve early in the season led to one of the most unwatchable stretches of offensive football Dolphins fans have had to endure on this side of Ray Lucas and AJ Feeley.
But it was the run game regression out of 21 personnel that dealt Miami its biggest blow. The Miami Dolphins’ rushing EPA out of 21 personnel in 2024 was dead last in total EPA among all qualifying teams in the last 20 years. Dead last!
What gives? Some of this spotlight can be shined on structurally how teams played the Dolphins without Tua, but the Dolphins rushing EPA with Tua on the field in 2024 as its own sub-category would still rank in the bottom 40 of NFL teams since 2005. Miami posted nearly equal negative EPA running the ball out of 21 personnel with and without Tua Tagovailoa suited up at quarterback.
Penalties were a part of the problem. The lost EPA to penalties on runs out of 21 personnel ranked 14th worst of the last 20 years. The execution and limitations of both the guard play and the tight end position loom large upon a review of the film, too. Durham Smythe and Julian Hill were erratic with the execution of their blocks as the Y-tight ends on the roster. Inside, Liam Eichenberg and Robert Jones were bets Miami placed on continuity that, frankly, imploded this past season.
The Dolphins actions at all three positions, plus with a big receiver like Nick Westbrook-Ikhine to boost the run blocking profile at receiver, suggests their season-review came to some of the same conclusions.
Will it be enough for the Dolphins offense to bounce back in 2025? It’s hard to say where the ceiling and floor is with this team — but it’s safe to say aspiring to not be the worst rushing team in two decades out of your primary personnel package is a nice, low bar to set initially.
