Matt Eberflus apparently had just two good decisions for this week and ran out of his supply at game’s end.
The Bears coach decided on Thomas Brown as his play caller and It worked. He also decided to defer after they won the coin toss, setting up a situation where the Bears could score 10 points and eat a big chunk off the clock in possession time ending the first half and starting the second.
The place where the good decisions really need to come is the end of games, though.
This hasn’t exactly been Eberflus’ forte, as the leadup to the Hail Mary pass showed in Washington D.C.
Eberflus fell into the old trap of relying on conservative defensive coach thinking. This line of thought says if something bad can happen it will.
Come to think of this, the Bears prove it’s true every week it seems. But in this case Eberflus decided against gaining some more yards prior to the game-deciding field goal try or 46 yards. He fell into the fetal position under a shell and Cairo Santos got to kick on second down with the Bears possessing a timeout still. The deflected and the Bears had lost.
“They were loading the box there,” Eberflus explained. “You could say you could do that for sure, maybe get a couple more yards, but you're also going to risk fumbling and different things there.
“We felt where we were, if we're at the 36 or 35, you definitely want to do that because you want to get it inside there. I felt very confident where we were at that time, with the wind and where we were on the field.”
They were loading the box, but who says you must run it into the box? Throw it or throw it away if there is pressure. There's a risk of fumble on every single play an offense runs so worrying about it there is simply looking for ways to overthink it.
Eberflus may have felt very confident in the approach, but with 5 to 10 more yards he really could have been confident because the kick would have been shorter. The ball can come off the kicker’s foot at a high angle faster then. It's very tough to block shorter kicks.
Now the wild card in all of this was the blocking for the field goal. Larry Borom got knocked back and onto the ground. Darnell Wright appeared to be severely challenged in the replay. The Packers forced their way back and if Santos has blocking like this on a field goal close or far away it’s possible it can be blocked.
Regardless, what’s wrong with making a 46-yard kick a 42- or 41-yarder with another run or pass instead of kicking the field goal on second down after running the clock down? They could have even tried to advance it to the 15 or 20 with a pass farther downfield when the Packers weren't expecting it.
Even Matt Nagy in the playoffs opted for a deep shot right before dispatching Cody Parkey for the ill-fated double-doink.
The idea something bad like a fumble can happen is true but it happens so rarely in such situations that the odds would appear to be far greater that someone will block the field goal because the kick is coming off at a lower angle from a longer distance away.
Eberflus had another questionable decision when he went for two and a 21-14 lead rather than kicking but he referred back to “the chart,” which tells coaches what to do. And the logic is obvious at going for the tie. So he can’t be blamed too much here, no more than Matt LaFleur could for going for fourth-and-goal at the 6 with plenty of time left in the game.
Either way it’s safe to question the first decision to kick on second down instead of going for more yards.
One standard line from Eberflus and his assistants is the importance of putting players in the best position to win games.
Did Eberflus do this on the game-deciding field goal try or even with earlier decisions in the fourth quarter?
Considering how many times the Bears have lost games late under Eberflus in his three seasons—this one, the Hail Mary, the Denver game last year, the Detroit game last year, the Cleveland game last year, the the game in Minnesota in 2022 when it when it was stolen from Ihmir Smith-Marsette on the final drive, even the Washington game in 2022 that ended on a pass completion bobbled at the goal line by Darnell Mooney—and you have to wonder if Eberflus simply can't finish.
This past offseason the Bears got rid of Justin Fields and the reason was how he finished, with consistent terrible fourth-quarter passer ratings. It was true. He did.
They got rid of coordinator Luke Getsy for essentially something similar. He didn't adjust during the course of the game and deliver points and wins at the end.
They fired Shane Waldron when he couldn't get enough points to win games, period. Yet when they do get 19 points and then are in position, they don't win anyway.
The Bears have become a template for losing late in games. The narrative is already written, just plug in the different details for those late games each time it comes up.
The NFL is a league where tight games decided in the last few minutes are a fact of life.
There's only one person left to fire as defeats late in those games continue to mount without victories in tight games.
