The Toronto Maple Leafs face an uncertain future with star winger Mitch Marner. Contract negotiations have stalled, and there’s a growing sense that Marner may test free agency, potentially leaving if a big number comes his way. That has led to wild speculation about possible replacements, something Jonas Siegel and James Mirtle looked at in a recent article for The Athletic. One scenario seems like a long shot: What if Toronto’s long game is about landing Connor McDavid?
It sounds like fantasy, but if McDavid chooses not to sign with the Edmonton Oilers right away (July 1 he’s eligible for an extension) there will be speculation he might be prepared to test free agency. If Plan A is to extend Marner, then Plan B might be to swing big in the summer of 2026. Given the expected rise in the NHL salary cap to $104 million in 2026 and the limited options for free agency this offseason, Toronto could be positioning itself for a blockbuster move.
They write:
“What if, for instance, McDavid opts not to sign an extension with the Edmonton Oilers this summer and somehow becomes available? If he were to leave Edmonton, the chance to play for his hometown team, and with close pal Matthews — who shares the same agent in Judd Moldaver — could be appealing.”
Will McDavid Really Be Available?
McDavid, the world’s best player, is under contract for the rest of this season and next. While Edmonton is likely to offer him a massive extension this off-season, some of his willingness to stay might depend on Edmonton’s success (or lack thereof) in these playoffs. What if McDavid decides to test free agency instead? As most Toronto pundits do, Siegel and Mirtle assume the Leafs would be one of the few teams on his radar. At that time, if they don’t sign anyone big immediately to replace Marner, they would be capable of affording McDavid.
The two scribes pushed the idea of McDavid returning home to Toronto—where he grew up a Leafs fan—in their article.
Also pointed out was the fact that McDavid and Auston Matthews already share an agent in Judd Moldaver. That could theoretically mean that negotiations would be smoother if Toronto were to pursue him. The appeal of forming a superstar duo with Matthews, much like the Pittsburgh Penguins did with Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin—or McDavid has now with Leon Draisaitl—is hard to ignore.
Assuming McDavid Is Even Available, How Would the Leafs Make Room?
Toronto is already anticipating a $13 million cap hole if Marner walks, and the possibility of parting ways with John Tavares would open even more space. Should they catch wind that McDavid might be option to a change, Toronto would have to postpone their big moves, opting instead for lower-cost signings in 2025. That would then leave them a significant amount of cap flexibility for the summer of 2026, allowing them to make an all-in push for McDavid. It could mean going as high as $20 million per season.
Siegel and Mirtle threw out names like Matt Duchene or Patrick Kane on short-term deals, ensuring they remain competitive.
Going after McDavid would be a high-risk, high-reward gamble. There’s no guarantee he’ll get to market and no guarantee he’d sign in Toronto. At best, this is a dream or a what-if scenario. The odds of it happening are extremely low.
What If McDavid to Toronto Goes the Other Way?
What might be more likely is that the Oilers chase after Marner this summer, which would entice McDavid to stay right where he is. Marner is a free agent this summer, and if Marner opts to leave Toronto, there would be real appeal to join the two best players in the world in McDavid and Draisaitl.
The Oilers could shift things over to make room for Marner, moving other pieces to build around the three most dynamic forwards in the game. Edmonton was prepared to make a play for Mikko Rantanen. They likely aren’t afraid to see if Marner has interest, should he make it to market.
