It seems as if Mattias Ekholm will return soon for the Edmonton Oilers.
There are plenty of questions, the biggest of which is when he’ll return. He joined the team in Dallas and even skated; he hasn’t even been ruled out for the next game! Another persistent question is whether he’ll be up to speed, and whether or not it’s another situation like the one in his final regular season game.
However, the question we’ll look to answer in this article is who will have to come out of the lineup whenever he’s ready. Let’s dig in!
John Klingberg
When the Oilers acquired Jake Walman, the defence core was pretty clear: Ekholm, Walman, Darnell Nurse, Evan Bouchard, Brett Kulak, and Ty Emberson.
A month and a half before the Walman trade, the Oilers signed John Klingberg after missing over a year due to hip resurfacing surgery. That surgery doesn’t tend to have a high success rate for returning players to their usual standard, and Klingberg showed rust in his 11 regular season games, picking up one goal and four points.
His advanced stats in five-on-five action weren’t great either, with the Oilers scoring eight goals with him on the ice as opposed to allowing nine for a 47.06% goal share. His expected goal share backed that up as well, posting a xG% of 46.78.
Once the trade was made, Klingberg was taken out of the lineup, appearing once in the final month and a few weeks where he was a -2 in a 6-1 loss to the Seattle Kraken. He was then placed on the Long-Term Injured List and missed the first game of the postseason.
Since returning for Game 2, the right-shot defenceman has looked great, picking up three assists in 12 games. Aside from Bouchard, he’s the team’s best puck-carrying defenceman, and he’s formed a nice partnership with Jake Walman.
Diving deeper into the stats, it’s easy to tell that with his emergence, the Oilers’ defence has stabilized after the first two games. In 215:27 minutes in five-on-five action, Klingberg has been on the ice for nine Oilers’ goals and just four against for a 69.23 GF%. His expected goal share isn’t as good, but it’s still at a respectable 57.06%.
While he became the Oilers’ de facto seventh defenceman once they traded for Walman, Klingberg has earned his place in the lineup.
Darnell Nurse
In Friday’s game, Darnell Nurse slashed Dallas Stars forward Roope Hintz, with Hintz clearly being injured. Nurse received a major penalty to start with, but the officials ruled it a minor penalty for slashing. The league ruled that the Oilers’ defenceman with face no further discipline.
It hasn’t been a particularly great postseason for the left-shot defenceman, especially considering his nice rebound in the regular season. In 13 games, Nurse has two goals and five points, but a worrisome 45.85 GF% during five-on-five action (11 goals for, 13 against). His expected goal share is a little more encouraging, as it stands at 52.31%
Diving deeper into the stats, eight of those 13 goals Nurse has been on the ice for have been with Evan Bouchard in 85:53 minutes together, giving the pair a 38.46% GF%. More encouraging is the pair’s 53.47 xG%, but the two defencemen should never be on the same pairing.
The Brett Kulak-Darnell Nurse pairing is a disaster so far this postseason, as they’ve been on for four goals against and none for in 62:21 minutes together. Even their xGF% is below 50%, sitting at 48.40%. Another not-so-great partnership is with Jake Walman, with the pair being on for one goal for and one against in 16:23 minutes of against. That said, they have a 36.60 xGF%.
Surprisingly, Nurse has been best with Klingberg, with the two defencemen being on the ice for four goals for and none against. Even their expected goals are above 50, sitting at 51.84% in 48:31 together.
Nurse’s ideal partner is Troy Stecher, with the pair seeing the Oilers score a goal and none against when they’re on the ice. More impressively, the Oilers are outshooting the opposition 49-39 and have 10 high-danger shots for against five high-danger shots against. In total, the pair has a 65.39% expected goals for, a great number.
However, that does pose an issue. Nurse isn’t coming out of the lineup, nor is Klingberg. Walman, Bouchard, and Kulak aren’t even up for debate, which means the odd-man out is Stecher.
Troy Stecher
Of the six defencemen the Oilers have been using since Game 4 of the second round, Stecher seems like the obvious choice to take out, right?
Well, that may not be the case. On top of being Nurse’s best partner, Stecher is the grittiest player on the ice despite standing at just 5’10”. Add the fact that he’s a solid puck mover, responsible defensively, and kills penalties, and it’s hard to say that the Oilers should take him out of the lineup.
So what can the Oilers do to get Ekholm into the lineup?
A forward
The most obvious answer for the Oilers is to go 11/7, at least for the first bit. Ekholm hasn’t played more than two minutes of hockey since Mar. 26, so there’ll be a little bit of rust. It’s also unlikely he’ll be 100%, and last time he played, he was injured after three shifts. If the Oilers have six defencemen and Ekholm suffers an injury, going down to five defencemen is a good recipe for a loss.
Head coach Kris Knoblauch likes to mix-and-match his defence pairings, as you can tell by how many defence partners Darnell Nurse has. Going 11/7 will allow Knoblauch to switch up pairings depending on the situation. Ekholm’s return will also help solidify the penalty kill, which desperately needs the big Swede.
While there are risks to going with 11 forwards, there have been some not-so-great performances from players so far this series. One such player is 40-year-old Corey Perry, who has been on the ice for one goal against during five-on-five against the Stars, but has an expected goal percentage of 37.19%. This isn’t just a trend in the Stars’ series either, as Perry had a 39.99 xGF% in the final three games against the Vegas Golden Knights.
There are other forwards with an xGF% below 50%, Mattias Janmark, Leon Draisaitl, Adam Henrique, and Connor Brown, but they either penalty kill or are one of the best players in the league. Perry receives power play opportunities, but Zach Hyman can easily fill in for him.
Other candidates to be removed from the lineup are Trent Frederic and Kapanen, but Perry would be my candidate if the Oilers decide to go 11/7.
That being said, this is a great problem to have for the Oilers.
