The Detroit Lions looked like one of the best teams in the NFL heading into the playoffs. Detroit finished the regular season with a 15-2 record, the best in franchise history. The Lions secured the No. 1 seed in the NFC after beating the Vikings in one of the most consequential regular season games in recent memory.
Detroit boasts one of the most dominant offenses in the NFL. The Lions are famously banged up on defense, but have still been able to slow down their opponents enough to beat them consistently. In fact, the Lions lead the league in point differential with +222. The next closest team is the Eagles at +160. This highlights that the Lions are not only able to beat their opponents, but they can beat them soundly.
Next up for Detroit is a Divisional Round matchup against Washington. Unlike the Lions, the Commanders continue to win games by going down the the final play. Washington has won its past six games, five regular season and one playoff, on the final play of regulation. This suggests that the Lions may be able to take care of the Commanders easily, at least when comparing season-long statistics against one another. And simply looking at the talent difference between the two teams.
The Lions will certainly be favorites to win this game, but that does not mean they should overlook a confident Commanders team that has nothing to lose.
Detroit will need to come up with a smart gameplan that spreads the ball around on offense to cruise past Washington. Otherwise, this game could get close and turn into another Commanders game that comes down to the final play.
Below we will explore the one Lions X-factor against the Commanders, aside from QB Jared Goff, who could have a huge impact on this game.
Jahmyr Gibbs must continue his recent streak of elite play, even if David Montgomery returns
Jahmyr Gibbs has been thrust into the spotlight ever since David Montgomery went down with an MCL injury. He has done nothing less than become a superstar who can single-handedly win games for the Lions.
Gibbs is in the middle of an incredible sophomore campaign. He has 250 carries for 1,412 yards and 16 touchdowns on the ground. He has also hauled in 52 receptions for 517 yards and four touchdowns as a receiver.
In many of those games, Gibbs was a complementary player to David Montgomery. Gibbs’ workload increased during Montgomery’s absence, but his efficiency did not dip off.
Gibbs became Detroit’s feature back in Week 16 and finished the regular season as their top weapon. In his three games as a lead back, Gibbs was incredible. He had 64 carries for 365 yards and five touchdowns rushing, which is good for 5.7 yards per carry.
Montgomery is expected to play on Saturday against the Commanders. It is easy to imagine the Lions returning to their old ways and splitting reps roughly 50-50 between their two backs. However, I believe that would be a mistake.
Gibbs has proven over the past three games that he is a true X-factor at the running back position. He fits the bill as a Christian McCaffrey or Alvin Kamara type of back who is a dual-threat weapon who can handle a ton of carries. Opposing defenses have to prepare differently for a player like Gibbs. Because of this, Detroit should lean into this and try to set Gibbs up for a big game instead of reducing his workload.
I will admit that one advantage of Sonic and Knuckles together is that both players can do a little of everything. That by itself keeps opposing defenses honest because they don’t know what will come next based on the running back.
I believe the Lions should lean on Gibbs as their X-factor and sprinkle in some Montgomery against the Commanders.
Once Montgomery has another week of practice under his belt, I could see Detroit going back to their normal 50-50 split for carries.
