The free agency saga between the Golden State Warriors and their free agent forward Jonathan Kuminga continues to rumble along, with still no resolution yet reached. But perhaps one is finally in sight – albeit one that no one really wants.
In his latest report on the relationship between the two, Shams Charania of ESPN reports that, despite his continued rebuffing of the Warriors’ larger two-year, $45 million offer – as well as trade interest from multiple suitors, including the Sacramento Kings and Phoenix Suns – Kuminga is willing to accept the one-year qualifying offer that was extended back at the start of free agency.
After all the posturing, negotiations and rumors, perhaps the lowest offer of all will be the one that gets accepted.
That negotiation haggle is another example of the ongoing tug-of-war for control of Kuminga’s future. It’s why, despite the short- and long-term financial risk, Kuminga is expressing a willingness to potentially take the qualifying offer. He would be declining nearly $14 million extra next season but would give himself an implied no-trade clause and a shot at unrestricted free agency next summer at 23 years old.
What Qualifying Offers Are
A qualifying offer is a base contract that an NBA team gives to a free agent whilst negotiations for a larger contract take place. Not many players are eligible, but some younger ones can be.
When a first round draft pick is signed to his rookie contract, he gets two guaranteed years of salary, plus two years available at the team’s option. If the team takes out both options, after the fourth year of the contract, the players enters restricted free agency if the team extends a qualifying offer by June 30th. This is what happened with Kuminga and the Warriors, as well as with other prominent ongoing free agency cases (such as Josh Giddey with the Chicago Bulls and Cameron Thomas with the Brooklyn Nets).
Restricted free agents can still sign offer sheets with other teams, but the player’s incumbent team retains the right to match that deal, in what is known as restricted free agency. That in turn disincentivizes other teams from signing those offer sheets, and from using precious salary cap resources (and time), unless they have a realistic belief that the offer sheet will not be matched.
That leverage, combined with the wider lack of spending power in the NBA this summer, has seen Kuminga be left very short of suitors. Those who might be interested in him but who do not have the cap space to sign him beyond the value of the mid-level exception – which Kuminga seeks more than, and which the Warriors would match – have to conduct tri-party negotiations, involving the Warriors, who because of their own payroll concerns have very set parameters on what they will take.
The QO, then, might be the other way through the mud.
What That Would Mean For Kuminga
As the name suggests, qualifying offers are indeed just that – offers. Contract offers. They are therefore acceptable, and thus can quickly turn into contracts.
It does not happen often, but it has happened before, when a player is unable to get the contract they want after their fourth season and gambles on taking the one-year deal with his prior team to return to them next season, and to return to free agency the following summer. The value to the player is that, after that additional season, they will be a fifth-year veteran – and thus no longer bound by restricted free agency.
Whatever happens with Kuminga, there cannot and will not be a qualifying offer situation next season, and he may feel as though it would be the best thing to return to the market once again. As opposed to the stickiness of this summer, there will as things stand be a bit more salary cap space available around the next in the summer of 2026, buoyed by further growth in the salary cap’s size and the expiry of much of the contract loading that teams prior to the advent of the apron systems.
The potential drawback for Kuminga, though, is that he will have to build his value once again, without the security of the guaranteed money. And if he returns to the Warriors, Kuminga will have to contend with the knowledge that the relationship for them is one of convenience and consolidation – not because they truly want him as a player.
What That Would Mean For The Warriors
If Kuminga does accept the qualifying offer, the chances of the Warriors losing him to free agency are about as high as ever. They would, however, more than likely get his services for the 2025-26 season, without fear of a trade.
Players who re-sign to one-year contracts, and who will have either early or full Bird rights upon its expiration, have the right to veto any trades they are in. And if they do acquiesce to any such trade, they lose their Bird rights.
The loss of Bird rights for Kuminga would mean the loss of the ability for his incumbent team, whoever they be, to re-sign him despite their salary cap situation. This in turn would mean losing the ability to re-sign him to any meaningful sign-and-trade. And this in turn would mean a big loss of leverage for Kuminga, who needs to be wanted (and acquirable) by at least two teams if he is to get the payday that he feels he merits.
Right now, Kuminga is having trouble finding one. The Warriors will give him a two-year deal at qualifying offer value, as per Charania’s report, but they would do so looking to trade him, something they feel they cannot currently do in light of the underwhelming returns on offer (and the financial penalties they would ensure). No one else has the cap space to sign him, and those that did made it plain a month ago that he was not a priority. Like a Love Island contestant who does not want to leave the villa yet, Kuminga will have to couple up with a team he knows he cannot make it work with long term – and hope a new bombshell is around the corner.
