The numbers and eye test are casting doubt on Jimmy Butler's ability to flip the playoff switch with Golden State.
Jimmy Butler caught at the top of the floor with eight seconds left on the shot clock, his defender lunging toward halfcourt after shooting the gap for a steal. Only Tyler Herro was between Butler and the rim as he quickly turned on his pivot foot, seemingly primed to attack downhill.
Instead of going right at the chest of his former team’s most exploitable defender, though, Butler waited for Gary Payton II to set a ball screen, losing the initial advantage yielded by Haywood Highsmith’s gamble. The result of that passivity was just as frustrating for Golden State Warriors fans as it’s become predictable since the future Hall-of-Famer’s arrival from the Miami Heat at the trade deadline.
The ball immediately found its way back to Butler after Payton, shocker, opted against launching an above-break triple. Miami had recovered by then, relegating Butler to create with the halfcourt defense set and shot clock ticking below four seconds—the type of distress players of his caliber routinely overcame on the path to undisputed stardom.
Butler is a different kind of a star. He barely looked to score upon putting his head down and drawing a double-team, even turning away from the basket to find the open man with just one second left for the Warriors to draw iron. The ensuing shot clock violation was the Dubs’ third of a rough first half, one in which they managed just 40 points on 35% shooting.
It’s not exactly surprising that Golden State once again struggled to score without Stephen Curry. The slumping Heat were desperate for a win on Tuesday with both the postseason looming and Butler back in South Beach for the first time since his acrimonious exit, too.
Still, any expectation that Butler might flip the switch to ‘Playoff Jimmy’ early under those special circumstances was gone well before he settled for a shot clock violation just moments before intermission. His default mode of offensive table-setter was evident from the opening tip at Kaseya Center, just like it’s been almost every time he’s suited up in Warriors blue and gold so far.
Butler finished with 12 points, six rebounds, two assists and a steal on 5-of-12 shooting in Golden State’s blowout 112-86 loss to Miami. One solitary free throw attempt best conveyed his docile offensive approach, circumstances of the season schedule be damned. Entering Friday’s road matchup with the New Orleans Pelicans, the 41-31 Warriors are virtually tied with the LA Clippers and Minnesota Timberwolves for the sixth and final playoff spot in the Western Conference. Each of the 11 remaining games in the regular season is pivotal to their hopes of avoiding the play-in tournament, as was Tuesday's.
Curry, thankfully, is primed to return to the lineup for Golden State as soon as Friday night, mitigating the sweeping effects of his new co-star’s preference to create shots for his teammates as opposed to himself. But the postseason is coming fast, and doubt about Butler’s time-honored ability to morph into offensive alpha dog when it matters most is understandably growing.
Can Jimmy Butler really flip playoff switch with Warriors?
Don’t count Butler among a burgeoning group of skeptics regarding his late-career scoring chops. He seems fully intent on leveling up with the Warriors in that regard come playoff time just like he did with the Heat, twice leading Erik Spoelstra’s team to the NBA Finals.
“I’m not just a scorer. I could score whenever I want to. I could shoot the toughest of toughest shots if I wanted to and nobody’s ever gonna say anything,” Butler told reporters following Golden State’s win over the shorthanded New York Knicks on March 15th. “But I wanna get everybody involved, I wanna get guys in their spots. When it’s my time [to score], you’ll know that it’s my time. But until then, I'm going to pass the ball to the open man, get my guys some jumpers, get them out in transition and we gonna keep winning.”
A former junior college transfer who cut his baby teeth in the league as a role player, Butler has defied the odds at pretty much every stage of his basketball journey. Even so, his next challenge figures to be one of the 35-year-old's toughest. It's been almost two years since Butler dusted off his superhero cape to will an underdog Miami team to the Eastern Conference crown. He wasn't close to the same historic force against the Denver Nuggets with a championship on the line, though, facing a big, athletic defense that loaded up to stop him while dealing with a balky right ankle.
The passage of time alone is reason enough to believe Butler won't reach his most vaulted postseason heights with Golden State. A nagging right knee injury also limited the six-time All-Star athletically throughout last season, ultimately sidelining him for the playoffs. Coupled with ugly advanced stats that align with an often dispiriting eye test, those realities make it almost as likely that Butler will disappoint in the postseason as rediscover his inner superstar.
Nothing distills concerns about Butler's self-creation ability better than his clear limitations as a penetrator. Over 50 players league-wide are averaging at least 10 drives per game, dating back to his debut with the Dubs on February 7th. Butler, with an impressive 13.6 drives per game, is passing on 52.9% of his forays to the paint, more often than any other high-usage penetrator in the NBA, per NBA.com/stats.
How many times has Butler driven into efficient scoring position with the Warriors, only to take an extra dribble while seeking out the pass? Possessions like this have been closer to the norm than the exception.
You don't become an all-time great playoff performer absent unwavering confidence. Maybe Butler really does believe his increased emphasis on playmaking is born solely from his desire to set up teammates for easy looks. On the other hand, shooting Butler's ugly mark of 39.7% on drives on drives with Golden State—second-worst in the league among frequent penetrators behind LaMelo Ball, per NBA.com/stats—would up any player's proclivity to pass after collapsing the defense, right?
Butler remains a devastating battering ram on the move, drawing fouls at essentially the same at Giannis Antetokounmpo. Some of the Warriors' most reliable offense over the last six weeks, with or without Curry, has come from him spraying the ball to the perimeter off the drive, ensuring scrambling defenses remain in the rotation. The high-low chemistry he swiftly established with Draymond Green will remain a staple of Golden State's attack in the postseason no matter how he adjusts his game otherwise. Butler's impact on the Dubs, obviously, has been palpable and all-encompassing.
The Warriors are dreaming bigger than a top-six seed or simply advancing past the first round of the playoffs after finally getting a second star to pair with Curry, though. Unless he suddenly finds the blend of burst, power, and explosiveness that's been notably missing since his last time playing the postseason hero in 2023, Butler's current best as a scorer and penetrator likely won't be enough to lift Golden State to true title contention.
