The Kansas City Chiefs have been the best team in the NFL since Patrick Mahomes became their starting quarterback in 2018. During those seven seasons, the Chiefs have won 7 AFC West division titles, have made 7 AFC Championship Games, made 5 Super Bowls, and won 3 of them. It has been the best era of Chiefs football in franchise history, hands down, and Patrick Mahomes has been at the center of that.
Mahomes is already a Hall of Famer and will go down as the most decorated Kansas City Chief of all time. Speaking as a fan, I've tried to put into words what watching him play and lead my favorite team to a level of success I only dreamed of has meant to me. So when I ask the following question, it isn't out of a lack of respect or appreciation for Mahomes, but it bears asking: Do the Chiefs need Mahomes to go back to his more prolific passing days?
The past two seasons have seen a drastic drop in Mahomes’ numbers, but without a drop in team success. That drop in his numbers can certainly be attributed to the problems the Chiefs have had at wide receiver and left tackle, but the end result has still been a massive drop in passing production. Look for yourself.
Is Patrick Mahomes still the same prolific quarterback?
Averages for 2018-2022 vs 2023-2024:
- 4,791.4 vs 4,055.5 passing yards
- 38.4 vs 26.5 passing touchdowns
- 8.1 vs 6.9 yards per attempt
A drop of almost 750 passing yards per season, 12 touchdowns, and over a yard per attempt less is a huge drop. Let's be honest—if Joe Burrow or Josh Allen had a drop-off like that, there would be plenty of Chiefs fans calling it out. Again, I don't think anyone can argue in good faith that the drop-off has been because Mahomes’ play has dropped. He's made the most of an offense that was hanging on by a thread (and that thread was named Patrick Mahomes).
The crazy thing is that if you just look at the results, the Chiefs didn't see any kind of drop-off in success.
Averages for 2018-2022 vs 2023-2024:
- 12.8 vs 13 regular season wins per season
- 100% vs 100% AFC West division titles
- 100% vs 100% AFC Championship appearances
- 60% vs 100% Super Bowl appearances
- 40% vs 50% Super Bowl wins
So, despite Patrick Mahomes' drastic drop-off in production these past two seasons, they have continued to win the same amount of regular season games, continued to win the AFC West, continued to make AFC Championship Games, and made and won an even higher percentage of Super Bowls. That's why many experts continue to pick the Chiefs despite whatever setbacks they may have.
Doesn't that make Mahomes even more impressive? He's finding a way to get the same results with even less production from his offensive supporting cast. That is my overall takeaway from looking at these numbers. The Chiefs don't need a "better" Patrick Mahomes to return to his prolific ways; they need the supporting cast to step up.
It's probably not fair to say Patrick Mahomes has been less prolific. A more accurate statement would be that the Chiefs' passing game has been less prolific. Suppose either Jaylon Moore or Josh Simmons can stabilize the left tackle position, and Mahomes has a full season with a combination of Rashee Rice, Hollywood Brown, and Xavier Worthy at wide receiver. In that case, I'm guessing we'll see passing numbers closer to what we saw in 2018–2022.
However, history says that even if those things don't happen, Patrick Mahomes will still find a way to get similar results, and I hope Chiefs fans truly appreciate that.
