The Edmonton Oilers have certainly had a busy summer, most notably when it comes to their forward group.
Their most significant additions this off-season were free agent signings Jeff Skinner and Viktor Arvidsson, who are expected to make big impacts as top six wingers next to Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl. The Oilers also acquired Vasily Podkolzin from the Vancouver Canucks in exchange for a fourth round pick, prospect Matthew Savoie from the Buffalo Sabres, prospect Roby Jarventie from the Ottawa Senators, and a first round pick from the Philadelphia Flyers that turned into Sam O’Reilly.
On the other hand, the Oilers lost a couple of forwards that played for nearly the entirety of their 2024 playoff run. Warren Foegele left in free agency to the Los Angeles Kings, Ryan McLeod was the major asset going the other way in the Matthew Savoie trade, and Dylan Holloway was signed by the St. Louis Blues after the Oilers declined to match his offer sheet.
In the grand scheme of things, McLeod, Foegele, and Holloway were not significantly impactful players in their time with Edmonton, but they had one notable attribute in common; all three of them added elements of speed to the Oilers forward depth.
For years, the Oilers have been one of the fastest teams in the NHL, largely due to Connor McDavid of course. But, they are now projected to be the oldest team in the NHL, as they don’t project to have a single forward under 27 on the opening night roster, and they just lost some of their fastest non-McDavid forwards.
As a result, I have seen some worry regarding the potential speed of their forward group past McDavid. It’s not a totally unreasonable concern to have.
So, to what exact extent is speed an issue, if at all, for the 2024-25 Oilers forward core? Here’s a closer look.
*All data via Natural Stat Trick, EvolvingHockey, NHL Edge, and AllThreeZones
Diving into NHL Edge data
At the beginning of the 2023-24 season, the NHL released the NHL Edge website, providing a variety of different player tracking data such as speed bursts over a certain threshold, distance travelled, shot speed, and zone time.
Using this data, here is a look at how NHL teams ranked in 2023-24 in speed bursts over 32 kilometers per hour:
Now, it must be mentioned that speed bursts should not be viewed as an exact measurement of speed. There’s a difference between being fast and playing fast, and attributes such as agility, acceleration and edgework are not captured in this metric. But, this data is probably the best we have publicly in terms of measuring speed, and it is interesting to parse through.
There seems to be no strong correlation between speed bursts and team success, as evidenced by the Columbus Blue Jackets ranking fourth in this metric, while the Panthers, Stars and Rangers — three of the four conference finalists — rank fairly average here. However, it is worth noting that nine out of the eleven slowest teams missed the playoffs, while four of the five fastest teams qualified.
All things considered, it is very reasonable to state that the Oilers were one of the fastest NHL teams in 2023-24. Edmonton averaged 36.3 speed bursts over 32 KPH per hour, ranking second in the league by a substantial margin and only behind the extremely dynamic Colorado Avalanche. Furthermore, the Oilers had a top speed of 38.93 kilometers per hour, ranking in the 93rd percentile in the entire NHL Edge database.
So, how fast could the 2024-25 forward group be?
Here’s a comparison between the 2023-24 group of Oilers forwards and the (projected) group of Oilers forwards in 2024-25 using NHL Edge data:
The 2023-24 roster had an average top speed of 36.5 kilometers per hour, and averaged 7.7 speed bursts per 60 minutes. The 2024-25 projected roster has an average top speed of 36.1 KPH, and averages 5.8 speed bursts per 60.
Interestingly, there does not seem to be a huge decline in average top speed, but the speed bursts see a substantial decrease. It is easy to notice that McLeod, Foegele, and Holloway were among Edmonton’s fastest skaters, and losing them could definitely cause the Oilers forward depth as a whole to play slower.
Analyzing Edmonton’s new additions, Arvidsson was a fairly fast skater in the games he played in 2023-24. Podkolzin has a low top speed, but averages a solid number of speed bursts. Skinner, however, is a very interesting case; his top speed (35.48 KPH) is roughly equal to the NHL average (35.57), but he averaged a mere 0.4 speed bursts per 60. Skinner had just eight speed bursts over 32 KPH for the entire season in 2023-24.
I believe it’s reasonable to say that this showcases one of the limitations with the speed bursts metric, because I feel Skinner is a solid skater and fairly agile; straight line speed is Skinner’s primary issue here, and he doesn’t “play” fast in general.
Now, I believe some additional context could be added to the projected roster above.
Arvidsson played just 18 games in 2023-24 as he recovered from a major back surgery, so perhaps it’s more fair to use a prior season with a bigger sample to assess his true abilities. Additionally, Connor Brown had a notoriously slow start to the 2023-24 season coming off an ACL injury, and he considerably improved as the season went on, especially in the playoffs where he looked like a legitimate third liner.
I also think it would be interesting to view the roster average without Corey Perry and Derek Ryan, Edmonton’s two oldest forwards at 39 and 37 respectively. It’s not unreasonable to believe they will not be regulars on Edmonton’s playoff roster next spring. In Ryan’s place, perhaps the Oilers could play a younger and speedy James Hamblin, who had decent possession metrics as a 4C in 31 games in 2023-24.
With everything in mind, here’s how a modified projection looks, using Arvidsson’s data in 2022-23, Brown’s 2024 playoff data, Hamblin in place of Ryan, and without Perry:
The 2023-24 Oilers roster still ranks faster, but the gap is significantly closer. A healthy Arvidsson and Brown, alongside the potential addition of Hamblin and subtraction of Perry on the roster, increases Edmonton’s speed burst rate by 29 percent.
The league average top speed among forwards is ~35.6 kilometers per hour, while the league average speed bursts per 60 is roughly ~5.5. Both versions of Edmonton’s projected roster here rank above these thresholds.
The transitional microstats
While speed is useful, what’s more important is how you use that speed. The ability to effectively move the puck up the ice and generate transitional offence is significantly more important than how many speed bursts you average per game.
Using AllThreeZones’ microstat tracking data, here’s a comparison between the 2023-24 forward group and the 2024-25 projected forward group in terms of controlled offensive zone entries and defensive zone exits per hour:
The average numbers are close, but using data from the past three years, Edmonton’s projected roster in 2024-25 averages more controlled zone entries and exits than their roster in 2023-24, even with the inclusion of Perry and Ryan.
A big factor for this is Viktor Arvidsson. In the past three seasons, which includes his injury-plagued 2023-24 season, Arvidsson ranks 18th among all forwards in controlled zone entries per 60, ahead of prominent names such as Nikita Kucherov, Sidney Crosby, Aleksander Barkov, William Nylander, and Sebastian Aho. Arvidsson is fantastic at carrying the puck into the offensive zone with control, better than each of McLeod, Foegele, and Holloway. If he remains healthy, expect him to provide a huge boost in this facet for the Oilers.
Additionally, there’s a great overall improvement in this area from Jeff Skinner. Although Skinner did decline to 8.6 controlled entries per hour in 2023-24, his controlled exits per hour does improve to 6.8. It’s fair to say he’s not a fantastic puck-carrier by any means, but he moves the puck much better than his speed burst rates may suggest. Podkolzin ranks above average in both areas as well.
Final Thoughts
I still feel that the Oilers could have matched Dylan Holloway’s offer sheet. Edmonton could certainly use more youth throughout their roster, and I thought there was some potential for Holloway as a longterm fit on Draisaitl’s wing.
Additionally, although he is a better third line centre than Ryan McLeod and performed fairly well in the playoffs, perhaps the Oilers could have pursued a younger and faster 3C than a 34-year-old Adam Henrique, who is quite inefficient at moving the puck up the ice.
All things considered, taking into account that the Oilers are projected to not have a single forward under 27 on the opening night roster, it’s evident that this forward core could be a lot younger. But, I’m not convinced that speed will be as huge of an issue for this team if the forwards are deployed correctly.
Yes, it is a fact that the Oilers lost considerable speed with the subtractions of McLeod, Holloway, and Foegele in Edmonton’s forward core. But, the team still ranks above the league average using the NHL Edge speed metrics, and they possess multiple forwards to make up for their departures. Ten different Oiler forwards rank above the league average top speed, and the team could still rank top five using NHL Edge’s speed burst metrics.
Furthermore, the Oilers’ current roster may arguably have improved in terms of moving the puck up the ice.
McLeod and Foegele provided useful speed, but what ultimately matters is what you do with that speed, and both of them — especially McLeod — often failed to be consistent offensive zone threats in the playoffs. Again, I would have liked to match Holloway, but even with the departures of McLeod, Foegele, and Holloway, I would strongly argue that the additions of Skinner and Arvidsson cause the team to have a net improvement in rush / transitional offence.
I will be interested to see what Podkolzin will be able to do with the Oilers. There’s no guarantee that he becomes an everyday NHL player, but perhaps a change of scenery in Edmonton gives him a spark. Considering Podkolzin’s relatively solid speed burst and zone exit results, which could be very useful for the Oilers, it gives the team more incentive to give him a longer leash in the NHL to see what he could do.
There is also a very realistic possibility that 20-year-old Matthew Savoie could be a legitimate option in the second half of the season, who is praised by various scouts for his speed and skating. I wouldn’t rule out the possibility of Savoie developing into an impact player in the 2025 playoffs.
It would still remain a wise idea to target a younger, speedier winger at the 2025 Trade Deadline to round out the middle six. Adding a puck-moving 2RD also improves the team’s pace of play. However, if healthy, the current Oilers forward group still projects to be a fairly fast squad with improved rush offence in 2024-25 if correctly deployed.
