Is Aidan O’Connell the New Favorite to be the Raiders QB1 Next Year?

With Sunday’s 19-14 victory over the Jaguars, the Raiders improved their record to 3-12 on the season, and it was arguably the most disappointing win in the history of the organization.

While the owner and players celebrated in the locker room, the greater portion of the fan base was lamenting the loss of a top draft pick.

Going into the Jaguars game, the Raiders were sitting on the no. 1 pick and with three losses to close out the season, they would have been guaranteed the draft rights to either Shedeur Sanders or Cam Ward.

With the injury-plagued Saints up next on the schedule, the new reality for the Raiders is that they could potentially end the season with the 8th pick, or even worse. They face the Chargers in week 18, who could potentially be in position to rest their starters for the playoffs, and a win over the Chargers would likely move the Raiders out of the first 10 picks in the draft.

For better or worse, the Raiders might soon be out of the running for one of the top quarterbacks in the draft, and Aidan O’Connell could go into his second consecutive offseason at the top of the Raiders’ depth chart at quarterback.

It might sound ridiculous, but if O’Connell closes out the 2024 season on a high note, the veteran options on the free agent market might not be more exciting for the Raiders than what they already have.

Sam Darnold and Kirk Cousins might be interesting options, but Darnold is expected to cost upwards of $40 million per season and Cousins, who turns 37 before next season, might not be a better quarterback than O’Connell at this stage in his career.

The other factor that could work in O’Connell’s favor would be the presence of head coach Antonio Pierce.

Some believe Pierce wanted to start O’Connell out of the gate this season and if Pierce hangs around for another season, there would probably be at least one voice of support for O’Connell in the Raiders’ building.

There is still a lot that has to play out, but the way things have gone for the Raiders this season, would it be a surprise to anyone if they missed out on all the top quarterbacks in the draft and free agency?

For anyone interested, here is a look at Kiper’s rankings alongside “Strengths and Weaknesses” as assessed by Pro Football Focus on the top 3 quarterbacks.

After Sanders and Ward, is there anyone on the list worthy of a first-round… or even a second-round pick?

1. Shedeur Sanders, Colorado

Strengths:

• Strong, wide base with good size in the lower half to generate throwing power from his legs
• Repeatable, fundamentally sound throwing motion (high release point helps make up for smaller height)
• Good zip on passes within 25 yards
• Mental and physical toughness to step up and take a hit while delivering a throw
• Good feel/anticipation for attacking zone
• Slippery in the backfield despite lack of mobility
• Not afraid to look backside of the formation on scrambles

Weaknesses:

• Ball speed can die on him in the air beyond 40 yards
• Release speed is average-to-below-average
• Arm strength is average for NFL standards
• Doesn’t always finish throwing motion across the body
• Below-average mobility (high sack rate)

2. Cam Ward, Miami (Fla.)

Strengths:

• True sidearm release that is David Carr-esque
• Experienced and successful middle-of-field passer
• “Never say die” type of playmaker with good escapability
• Adequate arm strength for the NFL level
• Impressive and natural touch passer

Weaknesses:

• Holds the ball below the shoulders in his stance, which makes for a longer release
• Side arm release is exotic but feels too varied throw-to-throw
• Accuracy numbers are high, but that is more due to volume; true ball placement isn’t consistent
• Ball security (fumbling) needs to improve

3. Jalen Milroe, Alabama

Strengths:

• Not just escapability but a true dual-threat athlete
• Good enough athlete to force missed tackles in space
• Twitchy athleticism evident in throwing motion speed
• Can show really nice touch/accuracy on deep passes
• Experienced RPO quarterback

Weaknesses:

• Accuracy/decision-making variance is large right now — plenty of highlight plays but also plenty of regrettable ones
• Holds the ball low and loose in his stance
• Accuracy can dip when he takes speed off his throw for shorter distances
• Can struggle seeing non-primary defenders
• Time to throw/sacks taken is far too high, even for “you take the bad with the good.”

4. Carson Beck, Georgia

Beck was once considered a candidate to the first-overall pick, but his stock took a nosedive in the last three months.

As a junior, Beck threw 24 touchdowns and only 6 interceptions. This year, Beck has thrown for fewer yards, more touchdowns (28), and double the interceptions (12). Overall, Georgia’s offense has taken a step backward in Beck’s senior year and his draft stock is nowhere near what it was at the beginning of the season.

5. Quinn Ewers, Texas

There might not be anyone in the draft who watched their stock fall harder than Ewers.

Once a candidate to be a top 10 pick, Ewers is considered by many to be a day 3 pick in the draft. His decision-making doesn’t seem to have improved and now his durability is being called into question.

Once one of the most sought-after quarterbacks in high school, Ewers now looks like a marginal NFL prospect, who has been advised by some to stay in college for another year.