Is a move to more 12 personnel beneficial for the Rams offense?

Throughout the Sean McVay era, the Los Angeles Rams have primarily been an 11 personnel team. In 2017, the Rams ran 11 personnel on 83 percent of their offensive snaps. That has only increased since then as the Rams were in 11 personnel 93 percent of the time in 2023.

With such a heavy dose of 11 personnel, there is certainly reason to believe that the Rams and McVay should add more variance to the offense and add more 12 personnel packages. However, from the Rams standpoint, they are able to get away with so much 11 personnel because of how they use their wide receivers.

Early in McVay’s tenure, they had Robert Woods, Cooper Kupp, and Brandin Cooks at the wide receiver position. It didn’t make sense to take any of that trio off the field and at the same time Woods and Kupp were among the best blocking wide receivers in the NFL. In 2018, Woods was the 11th best run-blocking wide receiver in the NFL and the following season he was 12th according to Pro Football Focus. During the Rams’ Super Bowl run in 2021, Woods ranked second in run blocking while Kupp was 10th.

That has only continued as the Rams have moved forward with Kupp and Puka Nacua. Last season, Nacua was the fourth best run-blocking wide receiver in the NFL. Nacua’s blocking was critical and completely changed the Rams’ run game.

With wide receivers like Nacua and Kupp who can block as effectively as they do, they are almost used as de-facto tight ends in the run game. This allows the Rams to stay primarily in 11 personnel looks. Everything looks the same and the defense can’t get a grasp on a play-call based on the personnel that is on the field at any given moment. The Rams are technically in 11 personnel, but with how their wide receivers block, it’s almost 11.5 personnel. That versatility that the Rams utilize with their players isn’t usually available from 12 personnel. The changeup of just sticking a tight end in the slot no longer stresses a defense.

At the end of the day, the percentages are just a number. Those percentages lack the context of how the Rams use their 11 personnel packages and how effective their wide receiver are in the run game. If Nacua is a better blocker and more of a receiving threat than the second tight end, why should he be taken off the field? If the goal is to have the best personnel on the field at all times and for everything to have a similar look while working in a cohesive system, 11 personnel makes the most sense.

The numbers also back this up. Last season on 998 offensive plays in 11 personnel, the Rams offense averaged .06 EPA per play which ranked seventh in the NFL. Contrarily, they averaged -0.18 EPA per play when in 12 personnel which ranked 28th.

If the offense is that much less effective, is it really worth sacrificing efficiency for the sake of variance and percentages? Of course, it’s also worth noting the small sample size of 52 plays in 12 personnel in 2023. With that said, this lack of production in 12 personnel is something that’s being seen around the league. The 33rd Team’s Dan Pizzuta noted this in a recent analysis,

“The problem is production from 12 personnel has taken a nose dive from its peak around the 2017-2019 seasons, driven by incredible efficiency in the passing game...The crux of the issue is that the conflict offenses are hoping to put defenses in with personnel just isn’t much of a conflict for modern defenses. In 2023, defenses stacked the box with eight or more defenders against 12 personnel just 40.5 percent and there was a light box with six or fewer defenders at 21.4 percent. This has essentially put the offense in conflict. The options are to trust the receiving tight end to win against a slot corner or make the defense pay by running the ball against the lighter personnel. Offenses haven’t quite figured this out. With that coverage, tight ends were only targeted on 29 percent of passes out of 12 personnel in 2023, a decade low.”

Still, this doesn’t mean that the Rams aren’t making efforts. When executed correctly, 12 personnel can still be effective. Without a true third wide receiver option, McVay may not just be more willing, but able to take a third wide receiver off of the field. There are signs that McVay may be looking to incorporate more 12 personnel into the offense.

For the first time in the McVay era, the Rams have a solid third wide receiver, but not a dynamic one that requires being on the field at all times. This offseason, the Rams signed tight end Colby Parkinson from the Seattle Seahawks. According to PFF, Parkinson ranked 10th in run-blocking in 2023 and eighth in 2022. It’s also worth noting that in 2022, Parkinson was the highest-graded run-blocking tight end in gap scheme runs. The Rams changed to more gap scheme runs from zone last season. Therefore, it would make sense in certain situations to take Demarcus Robinson or TuTu Atwell off of the field in favor of Parkinson.

Additionally, while 12 personnel has been less effective in the NFL, there is a specific team that remains very effective in that package. That team is the Detroit Lions. According to Pizzuta, while the Lions only used 12 personnel on 20.1 percent of their plays on offense which ranked 15th, they used it as a weapon. That was especially in the case in the run game. The Lions ranked 11th in EPA last season in 12 personnel, but were fourth in EPA per rush.

As the Rams continue to overhaul their run game, it wouldn’t be surprising to see them mimic some of the Lions’ designs. It’s at this point that I’ll note that the Rams signed former Lions guard Jonah Jackson in free agency. Jackson is experienced in that scheme and was the 10th highest run-blocking guard according to PFF last season.

If we begin to put some of the tea leaves together, it certainly seems like the Rams could be looking to utilize more 12 personnel. While they haven’t had the tight ends for it in the past, adding Parkinson in addition to having Davis Allen’s receiving ability, it could make sense. As Pizzuta said,

“In a league that is still increasing the rate of 11 personnel but trying to find ways to get bigger and more dynamic, tight ends could be an option. Some of those tight ends are considered more of an offensive weapon than a traditional in-line option. The idea is that the offense can use two tight ends simultaneously, with one playing a de facto receiver role to present a matchup conflict for opposing defenses —should they match with a base defense and lose some speed or go with nickel personnel and give up some size?”

In this case, Allen would be the de facto wide receiver that presents a matchup conflict for opposing defense. With that being said, another hint to these schematic switch could be the reported interest of Brock Bowers during the draft or even Dalton Kincaid last year. This may mean more utilization of Davis Allen in the offense in that role who has a similar size profile as Bowers. Said Pizzuta, “Their skill sets make it easier to be more creative in those looks, and that’s where the difference and a possible tight end revolution could shine.”

The Rams changed their run game last season and based on transactions this offseason, that seems to be only the beginning. The additions of Blake Corum, Parkinson, Jackson, and even reported interest of specific players signals that more change could be coming. Ever since McVay joined the Rams in 2017, they have primarily been an 11 personnel team. That fact is unlikely to change anytime soon. Still, it seems as if they are looking to build a unit that can remain efficient in 12 personnel and they continue to overhaul the run game and change part of the offensive identity.