Insider: Why Seahawks’ DK Metcalf is so tricky to value

   

With his rare blend of size, speed and strength, Seattle Seahawks star wide receiver DK Metcalf is one of the more unique athletes in the NFL.

Seattle Seahawks DK Metcalf lunge toward end zone Detroit Lions 2024...

If Seahawks trade DK Metcalf, there’s a team to watch

He’s also been one of the most consistently productive players at his position, joining Hall of Famer Randy Moss as the only two receivers in NFL history with at least 50 catches, 900 yards and five touchdowns in each of their first six seasons.

But at the same time, the 6-foot-4, 235-pound Metcalf hasn’t quite established himself as an elite top-five or top-10 wideout. The two-time Pro Bowler ranked seventh in the league with a career-high 1,303 receiving yards in 2020, but that remains his only top-10 finish on the receiving yardage leaderboard. He finished 34th as a rookie in 2019, 27th in 2021, 16th in 2022, 18th in 2023 and tied for 25th this past season.

All those factors make Metcalf a particularly interesting figure as the Seahawks embark on a pivotal offseason full of potentially difficult decisions.

With one season left on the three-year, $72 million contract extension he signed in July 2022, the 27-year-old Metcalf undoubtedly will be looking for a new deal this offseason that keeps him on pace with the league’s booming wide receiver market. But with other Seahawks also in line for potential extensions – including veteran quarterback Geno Smith – it’s possible Metcalf could command more money and salary cap space than Seattle is willing to commit.

Is Metcalf worth another big deal? Or, as was featured in an ESPN predictions article on Tuesday, would the Seahawks be better served trading their star wideout while he’s still in his prime?

During an appearance last week on Seattle Sports’ Wyman and Bob, The Athletic’s Derrik Klassen explained why it’s so difficult to answer those questions.

“I genuinely think he is one of the trickiest players for me to value, because on one hand, he is a unique threat in terms of his speed and his size,” Klassen said. “But he also doesn’t (always) play to it. He is not a guy who I think does very well when you press him. I think when he has to make contested catches, he doesn’t really play up to his size.

“At the same time, it’s pretty obvious how teams treat him in terms of coverage and gravity when he is on the field, because of how fast and explosive he is. And I do think (it helps) having a player like that next to (wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba), who can be explosive, but is more a guy who wants to feast over the middle in those intermediate ranges. It helps (JSN) to have a guy like DK Metcalf who can take the top off.”

DK’s overall impact

Smith-Njigba, a 2023 first-round pick out of Ohio State, surpassed Metcalf as the Seahawks’ No. 1 receiver this year with a breakout second half of the season. Smith-Njigba ranked 12th in the league in receiving yardage, finishing with 100 catches for 1,130 yards and six touchdowns. Metcalf, who missed two games with an MCL sprain, cooled off after a hot start and finished with 66 catches for 992 yards and five TDs.

On one hand, Smith-Njigba’s emergence as a No. 1 receiving option could make Metcalf more expendable for Seattle.

But on the other hand, as Klassen explained, Metcalf is a big-play threat who commands significant attention from opposing defenses – which in turn helps free up opportunities for Smith-Njigba and the rest of the offense. Seahawks Radio Network analyst and former NFL wide receiver Michael Bumpus discussed that dynamic Tuesday on Seattle Sports’ Bump and Stacy.

“If you don’t have that threat out there, defenses play you just a bit differently,” Bumpus said. “I’m not saying that you can’t find (a replacement for DK), but you know what you’re getting out of DK. He poses a threat to where safeties are gonna get a little deeper. They’re always gonna find (him) and see where he is, and it takes pressure off of your other receivers. It takes pressure off your tight end. It helps the run game.

“So his presence alone … makes a defense play you differently.”

Metcalf’s $24 million-per-year average currently ranks 13th among NFL receivers, according to Over The Cap. However, that contract was signed more than two and a half years ago. The wide receiver market has since skyrocketed, with six receivers inking contracts or extensions in 2024 with averages of at least $30 million per year – topped by Minnesota Vikings superstar Justin Jefferson’s record-setting $35 million-per-year deal.

Metcalf’s salary cap number is set to surge, rising from $15 million in 2024 to roughly $31.9 million in 2025, according to OTC. That would be the third-highest 2025 cap hit among all NFL wide receivers and would take up a projected 11.3% of Seattle’s cap space.

If the Seahawks extend Metcalf, they could likely reduce his 2025 cap hit while spreading it over multiple seasons. If they were to trade him, they would clear roughly $10.9 million in cap space by dealing him before June 1 and roughly $18 million in cap space by dealing him after June 1.

“I don’t know if they necessarily need to be 100 percent married to the idea of keeping him,” Klassen said. “But if they move on from him, they’re going to need to find another replacement who is similarly explosive.”