The stars could align for Indiana yet again.
The Indiana Pacers are coming off a heartbreaking defeat to the Los Angeles Lakers courtesy of a LeBron James game-winner, but they have managed to get back on track with a win over the Washington Wizards on the second night of a back-to-back. They are currently sitting in fourth place in the Eastern Conference standings, which is an improvement over where they finished last season.
The goal for the Pacers, of course, is to build off of last year's run to the Eastern Conference Finals. The Eastern Conference may be much tougher than it was last season, with the Cleveland Cavaliers emerging as a legitimate powerhouse, the Boston Celtics remaining a terrifying team to face due to their all-out attack from beyond the arc, and the New York Knicks having one of the best front fives in the association, but there is a roadmap for them to mount as deep of a playoff run, if not deeper if everything breaks right.
With that said, here is the dream scenario that the Pacers would want to get as well as the nightmare circumstance that they would want to avoid at all costs.
Dream scenario: Pacers draw the Milwaukee Bucks in the first round, avoid the Boston Celtics side of the bracket
If the season were to end today, the Pacers will be facing the Detroit Pistons in the first round of the playoffs in a 4/5 matchup. On paper, this appears to be the favorable matchup for Indy. After all, the Pistons don't have too much playoff experience on the roster, although they did bring in plenty of experienced players over the past year or so in Tobias Harris, Dennis Schroder, and Tim Hardaway Jr.
But the Pistons' best players, Cade Cunningham and Jalen Duren, will be getting their first taste of the playoffs and may be more vulnerable under the bright lights of the postseason. However, there is also a chance that this inexperience plays out in Detroit's favor; there is no pressure for them to deliver considering that this is their first playoff appearance since 2018 and their core remains one of the youngest and brightest in the association.
Thus, it might be for the best if the Pacers avoid facing a Pistons team with nothing to lose. If anything, Indiana should be wanting a rematch against the Milwaukee Bucks, a team that is likely to be shorthanded in the playoffs similar to last season.
While there is nothing to be happy about in the aftermath of Damian Lillard's blood clot injury that has him on the shelf for an indefinite period, battle of attrition is a real thing in the NBA playoffs. Teams can only play the opposition that's in front of them, and it looks like the Bucks may be ripe for another first-round exit, with one of their stars having to go on another one-man show just to try and make it to the second round.
And unlike last year, the Bucks no longer have Khris Middleton to pop off for them in the absence of one of their stars. Kyle Kuzma may have given the team more size, rebounding, and defense, but he doesn't have the same capability to explode on the scoring column like Middleton. He certainly hasn't shown that ability during his stint thus far on the Bucks.
And if the Pacers were to make it to the Conference Finals again, they would want to avoid the Celtics and Knicks' side of the bracket; Indiana could benefit from a matchup against a Cavs team that, while they've been excellent all season long, has shown signs of weakness in recent weeks. The Celtics remain the most frightening team to face in the playoffs; they are the reigning champion after all, and Indiana would want to delay that matchup for as long as they can.
Nightmare scenario: Indy falls to the six-seed, faces the Knicks in the first round
The Pacers, outside of a jarring late-season collapse, will be making the playoffs outright. The (plausible) worst that they can fall to is the six-seed, where they will be facing the Knicks, a team that nearly eliminated them last season if not for a few injury woes.
New York will be a tougher cover for the Pacers this time around with the additions of Karl-Anthony Towns and Mikal Bridges, while Jalen Brunson is always a frightening player to face in the playoffs. While Indiana certainly is capable of eliminating New York, they shouldn't have to expose themselves to the most difficult first-round matchup possible.
