How Zac Robinson has changed 4th down for the Atlanta Falcons

   

Zac Robinson’s first year as a play-caller in Atlanta can be considered a success. Previously, Robinson served as the passing game coordinator for the LA Rams under Sean McVay in 2022, a role where he impressed enough to earn multiple offensive coordinator interviews during the 2024 offseason.

Atlanta Falcons OTA Offseason Workout

Robinson brought several elements of the Rams’ offensive system to Atlanta, including consistent pre-snap motion and the 11 personnel formation (1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR). Under his leadership, Atlanta’s offense flourished, finishing as a top-10 unit in several categories: yards per game (6th), passing yards per game (5th), and rushing yards per game (10th). Notably, Robinson’s offense demonstrated a marked improvement in fourth-down efficiency compared to Arthur Smith’s 2023 offense.

In 2023, the Falcons under Smith attempted 19 fourth downs (25th in the league) and converted just 8 (28th), resulting in a 42.1% conversion rate—29th in the NFL. In contrast, Robinson’s 2024 offense attempted 31 fourth downs (5th in the NFL), converting 21 (4th) with a 67.7% success rate (6th).

While this increased aggressiveness on fourth down might suggest a decline in third-down efficiency, Atlanta’s third-down conversion rate in 2024 was 39.2% (17th), a slight drop from 2023’s 40.0% (13th). Though there’s room for improvement in this area, the shift highlighted the team’s bold approach under Robinson.

Atlanta’s fourth-down plays often went beyond the conventional goal of gaining a yard or two. Instead, Robinson used these opportunities to exploit defensive vulnerabilities. Atlanta's six touchdowns on fourth downs tied for the league lead with the Detroit Lions, according to NFL Pro.

Robinson's aggressive approach resulted in four plays of 25+ yards, including two 36-yard touchdown passes on back-to-back fourth-and-3 situations. The first was to Kyle Pitts in Week 8, followed by one to Darnell Mooney in Week 9.

Atlanta on Fourth Down (2024)

  • Overall: 31 plays, 21 conversions, 67.7%, 7.8 yards per play, 6 touchdowns, 3 interceptions
  • Passing: 16/23 (69.6%), 227 yards, 9.8 yards per attempt, 5 touchdowns, 3 interceptions, 0 sacks
  • Rushing: 8 carries, 16 yards, 2.0 yards per carry, 1 touchdown

Key Players on Fourth Down

  • Kirk Cousins: 13/19 (68.4%), 179 yards, 9.4 yards per attempt, 4 touchdowns, 3 interceptions, 0 sacks; 1 carry, 3 yards
  • Michael Penix Jr.: 3/4 (75.0%), 48 yards, 12.0 yards per attempt, 1 touchdown, 0 interceptions, 0 sacks
  • Bijan Robinson: 7 carries, 13 yards, 1.9 yards per carry, 1 touchdown
  • Drake London: 6 receptions, 86 yards, 14.3 yards per reception, 1 touchdown
  • Darnell Mooney: 5 receptions, 77 yards, 15.4 yards per reception, 2 touchdowns
  • Kyle Pitts: 2 receptions, 49 yards, 24.5 yards per reception, 2 touchdowns

Even in fourth-and-short situations (1-2 yards to gain), Robinson’s quarterbacks were aggressive. In 14 such instances, the Falcons passed six times, completing all six attempts for 52 yards (8.6 yards per attempt) and one touchdown.

Atlanta looked poised for a deep playoff run, sitting at 6-3 and leading the NFC South after nine games. However, Kirk Cousins’ performance declined significantly from Weeks 10-15, forcing Atlanta to adjust its offense to accommodate his limitations. This shift effectively curtailed the full potential of Robinson’s system.

Looking ahead to 2025, with Michael Penix Jr. set to take over as the starting quarterback, Zac Robinson’s innovative offense seems primed for continued success.