Expectations are understandably low for the Pittsburgh Steelers going into their wild-card game against the Baltimore Ravens on Saturday evening. They have not won a playoff game in eight years despite regular appearances in the postseason, they enter the game on a four-game losing streak this season, and were just beaten by the Ravens in Baltimore during that losing streak by a decisive 34-17 margin.
Nobody is expecting them to win against a Ravens team that is playing its best football of the season.
Few are even giving them a chance, as they are the biggest underdog of the wild-card weekend.
Despite all of that, there is still at least some reason for them to have at least some optimism going into Saturday's game.
For one, the Steelers have generally played extremely well against the Ravens in recent years and have mostly kept quarterback Lamar Jackson in check. Even including the Ravens' Week 16 win in Baltimore, the Steelers have won eight of the past 10 games against the Ravens.
Jackson has also struggled against the Steelers more than he has against any other NFL team and still has his worst career numbers against them.
When the two teams met a few weeks ago, the Steelers were playing without several key starters, including four on defense and three in their secondary. Starting cornerback Donte Jackson and starting safety DeShon Elliott were both out of that game, while their other starting corner, Joey Porter Jr., exited that game in the first quarter. Defensive lineman Larry Ogunjobi, one of their best run-stuffers, was also out.
That does not even get into the offensive side of the ball where wide receiver George Pickens was out.
That is a lengthy list of key players out. Not only will the Steelers have all of those players back for Saturday's game, but the Ravens are the team that will be dealing with a significant absence this time around with starting wide receiver Zay Flowers having already been ruled out.
The Steelers defense finally started to put something together in their Week 18 loss against the Cincinnati Bengals, playing one of their best games of the season in limiting Joe Burrow and Co. to just 19 points and only one touchdown. With a healthy group and a little momentum off a strong defensive showing, they might have figured something out and gotten themselves back on track. At least defensively.
That is going to be the key to any potential upset. They are not going to win a track-meet against the Ravens where they match them score for score. The Steelers' recipe for beating Baltimore — or any team, really — is to turn the game into a rock fight in the slop, win the turnover margin and not make any mistakes with the football.
That was the other issue they had in Week 16 at Baltimore. As lopsided as the score looked, the Steelers had a chance to make it a game by made two significant mistakes with turnovers that resulted in a 14-point swing. The first was quarterback Russell Wilson fumbling at the 2-yard line when he looked to have a sure touchdown — or at least a first down — and a pick-six thrown by Wilson in the fourth quarter. Those are the types of mistakes the Steelers do not make when they are generally winning, not to mention the fact they forced two fumbles in the game and recovered none of them.
Cut down on the turnovers. Healthy defense. Turn the game into slop.
That has to be their recipe.
It might not result in a win, and it is probably not going to turn them into a Super Bowl team, but it could give them a chance in a game nobody is expecting them to win.
