The New York Giants' decision to trade back into the first round of the 2025 NFL Draft to select Ole Miss quarterback Jaxson Dart sent a clear message to the team and its fanbase: Coach Brian Daboll has identified his guy to become the club's next franchise quarterback.
It's the thought that every team has when they select a quarterback in the first round, and even though Dart wasn't picked until No. 25 overall, Daboll's future with the team is riding on the young QB panning out.
But for Dart to realize his full potential, he'll need time to develop. It's time that Daboll may not have after going 18-32-1 during his first three seasons on the job. There was serious speculation that he and general manager Joe Schoen would lose their jobs last offseason, but the regime was given at least the 2025 campaign to right the ship.
Dart is now a huge part of that plan, and the Giants need to ensure they have a good one to maximize his upside.
ESPN NFL Draft analyst Jordan Reid and Giants reporter Jordan Raanan teamed up to outline what a path to success could be for Dart in New York, and their consensus was clear: he needs a redshirt season behind veterans Russell Wilson and Jameis Winston.
"With Wilson and Winston on the roster, there's no pressure to throw Dart on the field," Raanan wrote. "Instead, he'll be able to soak in knowledge from his veteran teammates along with Daboll and quarterbacks coach Shea Tierney. Daboll and Tierney were instrumental in Josh Allen's growth in Buffalo, and offensive coordinator Mike Kafka was in charge of Patrick Mahomes' developmental program in Kansas City. They'll have a solid plan in place to get Dart ready."
Reid added that Dart will be set up as the New York Giants' starter in 2026, and while I agree that that would be the best scenario, I have a hard time believing it will be what actually happens.
The Giants have the NFL's most difficult schedule in 2025, which means early-season losses can be reasonably predicted. And when losses pile up, the temperature around the head coach gets much hotter. Self-preservation will eventually kick in for Daboll, and the most effective way for a head coach to stick around is by establishing he has good chemistry with an impressive rookie quarterback.
Enter the infamous midseason switch to the first-round QB.
ESPN fantasy analyst Mike Clay seems to agree that Dart will see the field with his 2025 season predictions, which have the first-rounder throwing for 1,991 yards, 10 touchdowns, and eight interceptions. If we project Dart to throw for around 200 yards per start -- which is being generous -- Clay's prediction suggests he'll start around 10 games.
The New York Giants face a murderer's row of games beginning in Week 6, with contests against the Eagles, Broncos, Eagles (again), and 49ers. Perhaps Week 10's matchup against the Bears is the game Giants fans should circle as Dart's potential debut, especially if New York only has one or two wins at that point in the season.
I firmly believe that experience is the greatest teacher. And while Dart's rookie season may look ugly at times, getting him valuable reps at some point in the season, especially if the New York Giants are knocked out of playoff contention by midseason, should rank high on the team's priorities.
Otherwise, the Giants will be headed for another complete reboot in 2026.
