How much longer do the Edmonton Oilers have prime Mattias Ekholm?

Mattias Ekholm is arguably the most important defenceman on the Edmonton Oilers. He is their best overall defenceman with elite defensive skills.

Yes, Evan Bouchard provides a lot of scoring, but Ekholm brings a veteran presence with a calm playing style. Without him, the Oilers would not be as strong.

The Jake Walman acquisition does help with the possibility of losing Ekholm. However, it is time to consider how long a winning window the Oilers have. Do the Oilers’ Stanley Cup chances decline once Ekholm regresses?

Ekholm’s contract situation

The 35-year-old defenceman is entering the last year of his four-year contract. He has a cap hit of $6M a year, thanks to the Nashville Predators retaining 4% of the contract. Ekholm was acquired from the Predators in exchange for prospect Reid Schaefer, defenceman Tyson Barrie, a first-round pick (Tanner Molendyk), and a fourth-round pick (was dealt to the Tampa Bay Lightning). This trade was well worth it for the Oilers, as it helped make them serious contenders for the Stanley Cup. Ekholm has been a beast in the playoffs and the question is, should the Oilers re-sign him?

The Oilers would likely wish to sign Ekholm to a short-term deal. He will be 36-years-old after next season, and could likely begin to regress. A potential contract for Ekholm would be somewhere between one to three years at $4M a season. Even if he does begin to regress, he is still a valuable defenceman who fits well in the Oilers’ system. The next offseason will be extremely interesting because the Oilers may have to re-sign captain Connor McDavid, Jake Walman, and Stuart Skinner. There could be plenty of changes next offseason, so Stan Bowman may choose not to re-sign Ekholm if the winning window starts closing.

Ekholm’s performance as an Oiler

Mattias Ekholm has been a phenomenal Oiler. He was an excellent trade deadline acquisition that instantly fit in with the group. His overall best season in the NHL was his 2023–24 season with the Oilers. Ekholm scored the most goals in a single season with 11, had his highest point total with 45, and easily had his best plus/minus rating of plus 44 (his previous best was only plus 28). These totals did come from the fact that he is on such a strong team, but it was no secret that Ekholm was playing with determination.

The 35-year-old has played like he wants to win a Stanley Cup. Unfortunately, in the past few years, the Oilers have fallen just short.

The 2023–24 season was Ekholm’s most physical season. The defenceman posted a whopping 136 hits in 79 games, which crushed his previous career high of 91. Last season, Ekholm fell off a little bit. He dealt with some injuries, especially down the stretch, which caused him to miss the majority of the playoffs. Ekholm finished the year with fewer points and set a career high in giveaways with 83 in 65 games.

This kind of drop-off can be expected at Ekholm’s age, but the giveaways and plus-minus rating of +11 bring some serious concern. I know a player’s plus-minus rating is not an effective way to determine a player’s defensive capabilities. However, a fall from +44 to +11 is a major concern.

Overall, Ekholm has been a great Oiler, but his best days are likely behind him. If he wants to perform like he did in the 2023–24 season, he must stay healthy.

For more, check out our 2024–25 player grade on Ekholm: 2024–25 Edmonton Oilers players grade: Mattias Ekholm

What to expect next year

Going into next season, Ekholm will still be a valuable piece to the Oilers. He will likely remain on the top defensive pairing and the top penalty kill unit. This could be one of the last seasons of prime Mattias Ekholm. After that, the Oilers may need to find a replacement for him. With McDavid and Walman needing extensions past next season, it is likely the Oilers may have to move on from Ekholm, regardless of how much money he wants.

A projection for Ekholm for next season would be around 30–40 points, alongside 50 hits and 90 blocks. As the defenceman has gotten older, he will likely not play as physically due to the wear and tear on his body. His health should be his number one priority moving forward, as the Oilers cannot afford him to go down with another injury.

The 2025–26 season will be an all-or-nothing type of season for the Oilers, especially if McDavid is not signed. Oiler fans can expect it to be a good one, as everyone should be on board to win at all costs. They have some new, younger players in Matthew Savoie and Isaac Howard. Ekholm will be one of the many veterans to help lead these young guys into battle.

Do you think it is worth it to extend Ekholm? Or is it not worth it in the long run?