How Chicago Bears get bigger gains from Caleb Williams' passes

That's because, as Pereles points out, Williams was utterly terrible at deep passing last year.

This wasn't the case in college.

"He completed just 22 of 80 throws at least 20 yards downfield, and over 41% of such throws were off target, meaning he didn't even give his teammate a chance," Pereles wrote. "Only Mac Jones was worse there."

And then the kicker: "The Bears just kept peppering deep shots, though. Those 80 attempts were most in the NFL."

When someone is throwing deep so often there must be reason. Part of it was dumb play calling by Shane Waldron, then Thomas Brown. Most of it, however, was the down and distance. Even the worst play callers wouldn't force the ball downfield when there is little chance for completions. They just did it out of desperation.

Johnson was asked during offseason work how Williams becomes a more accurate deep passer.

"Repetition, repetition, repetition," he said. "I had that narrative in Miami when we drafted (Ryan) Tannehill in 2012, 2013, that he struggled with the deep ball, and you just keep focusing on it, you get close with your receivers.

"It doesn't matter if you're throwing the ball deep, throwing it short, but it takes some time to develop chemistry. Once you get that done, then, usually, it becomes clockwork after that."

It never hurts to be more accurate, but the real way Williams gets bigger gains in the offens is through Johnson's play designs. Johnson manages to scheme open receivers, normally at closer range and not downfield.

Johnson often schemes it so shorter receiver routes are open and Williams wouldn't want to pass them up to risk throwing it downfield.

Last season only Tua Tagovailoa, Gardner Minshew, Patrick Mahomes, Aaron Rodgers and Baker Mayfield had shorter average air yards on their throws than Jared Goff, according to NFL Next Gen Stats. The same site says only  Mahomes, Mayfield, Derek Carr and Lamar Jackson had lower aggressiveness percentages than Goff. An aggressiveness percentage is the percentage of passes that are thrown into tight coverage with defenders within a yard or less at time of completion.

So, Goff was throwing very few long completions and few into tight coverage. His average of 5.1 air yards per completion ranked 25th in the league. 

The result was only Jackson (8.8) had more yards per pass attempt than Goff (8.6) did.

The Lions didn't throw the ball deep to get all those yards per pass attempt, one of the most critical stats for any team with Super Bowl designs. They threw it short, but Goff led the NFL in passing yards after the catch. They caught it short and ran.

The answer for how to improve Caleb Williams' deep passing isn't really repetitions. It can't hurt, and it will help with accuracy. But the real answer is just don't have him throw it longer as often.

The Lions schemed open the closer targets, hit for yards after catch, and were actually consistent on longer passes because they're able to catch defenses napping, like when they hit the Bears with the "Stumble Bum" play or a deep ball down the middle to Jameson Williams.

Much is made of the analytic number expected points added by Johnson. Pereles deals with this in the article but the best way Williams improves passing EPA is with bigger gains and more consistency in completions than last year.

The way this happens is with Johnson's designs making for open shorter targets and YAC. Essentially, Williams throws shorter completions for bigger gains. Eventually, can open the way for his deeper passes when defenses try to adjust.

It's not rocket science, but for three years Johnson made getting receivers open into a science.