With a fairly underwhelming start to the 2024-25 season, it’s clear that the Edmonton Oilers have several areas for improvement.
On the one hand, both history and the statistics strongly suggest that many of the team’s current concerns will improve sooner than later. For instance, the Oilers currently rank 29th in the NHL in goals per 60 minutes of play; considering this team’s dynamic top talent and their incredibly low shooting percentage of 7.3 percent, we know this won’t continue.
However, some of those areas of concern will not simply improve on their own, such as the question of Darnell Nurse’s partner and the inconsistency of their goaltending. But, I feel these topics have been covered in detail.
For this piece, I’d like to focus on a different concern, something which has been relatively understated and mentioned less frequently; the disappointing play of Edmonton’s third line to begin the year.
When healthy, the Oilers are expected to (usually) play Connor McDavid at 1C, Leon Draisaitl at 2C, and Adam Henrique at 3C, while the fourth line consists of a rotating cast of players. To demonstrate exactly why the third line has struggled, here is a glance at the overall performance of each of Edmonton’s top-four lines so far when healthy:
For now, I would not be overly concerned about the first, second or fourth line.
Yes, Edmonton’s first-line has been far from their best this season, and Connor McDavid’s injury makes the situation even worse, but I don’t believe this will last in the long run. I would argue that the top line’s underwhelming results can be partially attributed to Kris Knoblauch’s constant line-juggling, and even then, they remain positive in expected goal and high-danger chances. History shows that they will improve.
So far, Leon Draisaitl’s scoring chance results at center have been outstanding. His line has been incredibly unlucky not to score more, and moving forward, you can expect a lot more goals coming their way.
Edmonton’s fourth line has played reasonably well, out-scoring and out-chancing the opposition. One big reason is that Corey Perry has been a very useful player in a fourth-line role, ranking second on the team in 5v5 goal differential, and the addition of Noah Philp should result in even more improvement.
But, the third line’s results are quite worrying.
After the first eleven games of the season, they have been out-scored 2 to 6 at 5v5, and unlike the other lines, they have been crushed in terms of dangerous chances; it’s not just bad luck. They had a strong showing in Edmonton’s fourth game of the season against Philadelphia, but otherwise, they’ve been quite subpar. On the season, third-line center Adam Henrique has just one point in eleven games, while ranking second last among the team’s forwards in 5v5 goal differential at an awful 23%.
Should this be a surprise? In my opinion, no.
Let’s go back to last spring, where Edmonton deployed (former Oiler) Ryan McLeod as the third-line center for the first three rounds of the 2024 playoffs. Unfortunately, McLeod mightily struggled in this timespan, as his line was out-scored at a ratio of 1 to 6 at 5v5, equating to a brutal 14 percent goal differential. Eventually, the coaching staff made a change in Game 3 of the conference finals and slotted in Adam Henrique at 3C, who had struggled with injuries up until that point.
With Henrique at 3C, Edmonton’s third-line out-scored opponents 6 to 3, an enormous improvement over McLeod at 3C. Most will recall the third-line of Henrique, Mattias Janmark and Connor Brown in particular, a trio that held a superb 67 percent goal differential in the cup finals, scoring crucial goals in Games 4 and 6. Following their success, Henrique was re-signed in the summer, and the Oilers began the 2024-25 season with Janmark, Henrique and Brown on the third line.
But, the success of that line was simply never sustainable.
In the playoffs, the Oilers may have held a 6 to 3 edge in goals with Henrique on-ice, but they were out-chanced at a rate of 32 to 67; put differently, the Oilers were essentially out-chanced at a 1:3 ratio with Henrique at 3C. Overall, Henrique held an abysmal 35 percent expected goal share.
One metric commonly used to determine puck luck is PDO, a stat that sums a player/team’s on-ice shooting percentage and on-ice save percentage. The league-average PDO is roughly ~1.00, and >99% of players will not sustain a PDO over ~1.02-1.03 over a large sample.
What was Henrique’s PDO as 3C in the 2024 playoffs? 1.11.
Simply put, the third line with Henrique at 3C was crushed in terms of both shots and quality scoring chances, and their goal differential would have never been sustained. As such, Edmonton’s third line’s lackluster performance should not come as a shock.
It’s worth noting that each of the past five cup-winning teams held a third-line with a minimum goal differential of 54%. It goes without saying that running four competent lines is a must for a cup contender to succeed, and by the 2025 playoffs, management must be able to find a solution to their struggling third line.
So, how can the Oilers go about fixing their third line?
Firstly, I believe Adam Henrique can still be a solid third-line center. I don’t believe that Henrique specifically is the major issue with that line; but, he must be surrounded with the proper wingers who can compliment his strengths and lessen his weaknesses.
Here is a brief profile of Henrique’s underlying numbers in the prior three seasons:
What makes Henrique a useful player is his established ability to produce and finish. For a team that has constantly rotated their bottom-six with an endless cast of unproven players throughout the past few years, Henrique is a fresh breath of air in that regard. Specifically, Henrique’s strengths are primarily off the cycle, as he’s an intelligent player in the offensive zone and excels at finishing his chances.
But, the main problem with the Henrique line is getting to the offensive zone in the first place.
Per NHL EDGE, Henrique has spent 42 percent of his even-strength TOI in the defensive zone, compared to 38 percent in the offensive zone, ranking well below-average in comparison to other forwards. It’s a huge reason for the third line’s substandard possession and scoring chance results.
Perhaps Henrique’s greatest weakness is his mediocre speed and puck-carrying abilities, as his controlled zone entry rate ranks in the 10th percentile among all NHL forwards in the past three seasons. He struggles move play in the right direction himself or be any threat off the rush. This is arguably the biggest cause for the third line’s lack of OZ time.
It’s also worth noting that Henrique’s underlying defensive numbers are rather unspectacular. Ryan McLeod was flawed as Edmonton’s 3C in several ways, but at the very least, he remained an excellent defensive center who could drive possession when he wasn’t scoring. The problem with Henrique right now is that when he isn’t producing goals, he’s a lot less useful.
For Edmonton to run a successful third line with Henrique at center, I believe they must deploy him with younger and faster wingers, players who can efficiently move the puck up the ice and sustain possession in the offensive zone. So, what does an ideal third-line look like?
Firstly, let’s establish that Janmark – Henrique – Brown is simply not a viable third line at this point for a cup contender. The trio has been out-scored 1 to 3 and holds an atrocious 28 percent high-danger chance differential. Specifically, Janmark’s zone entry and exit results are just as poor as Henrique’s, and he is an awful stylistic fit for him.
Connor Brown could still work on Henrique’s right wing, as Brown ranks above average at entries and exits, but I believe Henrique needs more than just Brown (ironically, Ryan McLeod could have been the perfect 3LW for Henrique).
The Oilers did try a third line of Jeff Skinner on Henrique and Brown’s left wing, which worked well for one game, but it was mediocre for the others. I’m not a fan of Skinner on Henrique’s wing in the first place, as Skinner has historically done best when deployed next to a skilled, dynamic center, which is why I would play him on Connor McDavid’s left wing when he returns from injury.
With Skinner and Zach Hyman on McDavid’s wings, while Vasily Podkolzin and Viktor Arvidsson are on Draisaitl’s wings, that could free up Ryan Nugent-Hopkins to play on the third-line.
RNH has performed fairly well at moving the puck up the ice when playing LW throughout the past few years, and is specifically proficient at zone exits. His proven offensive abilities and responsible defence also compliments Henrique. Like Henrique, RNH has had a disappointing start to this season, but perhaps he could perform much better against third-line competition.
At the current moment, I believe a line of RNH – Henrique – Brown is the ideal third-line when the roster is healthy. There is potential for that trio to be used in an offensive or defensive role. Still, there could be room for even more improvement.
In a perfect world, Matthew Savoie is Henrique’s right-wing at the start of the 2025 playoffs. With Savoie’s youth, speed, and offensive prowess off the rush, he could be an excellent fit for Henrique.
I would also consider adding a middle-six left-winger at the trade deadline. It would be huge for Edmonton if Vasily Podkolzin can be a legitimate long-term winger for Leon Draisaitl, but adding another proven option, someone with speed and skill, certainly wouldn’t hurt. It also grants Edmonton the option of moving back RNH into the top-six.
There is even an entirely different alternative of playing Henrique as a wing in the top-six, and deploying RNH as the 3C. This is less ideal, but it is worth considering if Henrique continues to struggle at 3C even with a change of wingers.
All-in-all, the Oilers possess a couple of different options – both internal and external – to improve their third-line. We’ll wait and see what Kris Knoblauch does as the season progresses.
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