How Bears coaching can make D'Andre Swift an exception to the rule

The percentages appear to say something very positive for Bears running back D'Andre Swift this season, based on a quick look at an ESPN analytical study of past playmaker production as it applies to fantasy ball.

However, just like former Bears defensive coordinator Greg Blache once said: "Numbers lie. Numbers are like your brother-in-law, they lie; they need to."

The website's Mike Clay looked at past touchdown production from 2012-23 for running backs who had 200-plus touches but underperformed with six TDs or less. He determined most often they head toward the mean the next season if given the chance. In other words, they bounce back if given a chance.

This sounds great for the Bears because D'Andre Swift had only six touchdowns last year.

Clay found that 80% (36 of 45) backs during that period from 2012-23 who had 200 touches but failed to reach seven touchdowns were able to reach at least seven the following year if they had 200 touches again. In fact, he said they averaged 9.3 TDs the next year.

"If you skipped all that, or just tuned out while scanning over the math, the point here is simple: NFL players tend to bounce back—often in a big way—when they post an unusually low touchdown number and see similar playing time the following season," Clay wrote.

Before celebrating as a Bears fan or putting Swift down as a player to get on your fantasy roster, the problem here is Swift is one of the few backs who actually failed to improve his TD number with similar or more attempts.

He had six TDs on 268 touches for the Eagles in 2023, and last year had 295 touches and again produced six touchdowns.

When he's already proven he doesn't benefit from consecutive seasons with 200 or more touches, it doesn't say much for his chances to rebound like so many of the players in Clay's study did. On the surface, it probably says he won't even get that many touches again.

So fantasy owners, bettors and Bears fans in general could conclude Swift isn't a really good play for 2025.

Maybe not.

Fantasy and analytics seem like good bedfellows, but in Swift's case a better pairing might be reality and fantasy.

Reality, in this case, is someone known as coach Ben Johnson.

It's going to be different for Swift now because his coach is Johnson and not Nick Sirianni or Matt Eberflus. Johnson already had Swift once on his team and what the Lions found was Swift is more productive from a touchdown standpoint when his work gets cut.

Swift probably won't want anyone to know that, but Johnson was the one who reduced those chances in 2022.

Swift had 10 TDs on 160 touches as a rookie, then in 2021 had only seven TDs on 213 touches. He definitely didn't benefit from more touches then.

Johnson became offensive coordinator and cut Swift's touches back from 213 to 147. The end result was eight TDs. He scored a touchdown on 5.4% of touches as opposed to 3.3% when overloaded with work in 2021.

Now, Johnson has Swift again and he's coming off a career high in touches (295). Based on the drop in touches with Johnson in the past, you would have to think Swift's TD production might drop but his past says he actually was more effective when this happened anyway.

There is no way Johnson is giving Swift the ball 295 times again. That's just not Johnson's MO. It's too many touches.

They also have Roschon Johnson and Kyle Monangai they can get the ball to, among others. Maybe they'll get someone else yet, too.

Look for Johnson to cut way back on Swift's work, but the past says it will increase his productivity in terms of TD total and percentage, while the other backs also put up good numbers.

This is based on past numbers that don't lie like your brother-in-law.