How Alabama defense quietly strangled last few Tigers, turned season around

And while there’s never been a time possessions were devalued, trends within the game have perhaps never prized them more.

Since peaking at the height of the HUNH era of 2013-16, the number of possessions per college football game have been on the decline, according to the research of Brian Fremeau on his site BCFtoys.com.

Games were averaging around 27 possessions a decade ago.

Through 11 weeks of this season, that number is down to 24.3 combined possessions a game.

Scarcity creates value.

Basic economics.

We mention all of that to demonstrate how Alabama’s defense in the first year of the post-Saban era has taken strides in nearly every way these circumstances impact outcomes.

Through six SEC games, opponents are averaging 12 possessions a game. That’s roughly the same number as last season but the defensive efficiency has improved.

Specifically: Turnover creation.

Alabama’s taken 18 possessions in the six SEC games this fall. That’s more than touchdowns allowed (16) and already dwarfs last year’s numbers. Alabama had 10 takeaways in league games last fall for an average of 1.3 a game compared to 3.0 this year. If you prefer percentages, 25% of SEC possessions are ending in Alabama takeaways compared to 10.5% last year.

Zooming out, the 2.3 turnovers forced per game is the most since at least 2016. Only once in that span has an Alabama team force more than two a game (2.2 in 2019) . That number was as low as 1.07 in 2021 when Alabama was No. 104 in takeaways compared to its current No. 4 standing in 2024.

Not insignificant when possessions are becoming more finite resources.

In terms of scoring, those numbers have dropped significantly after Georgia and Vanderbilt opened league play with big numbers. Of the 16 touchdowns allowed, 15 came in the first four games. That 16th is more of a technicality since LSU scored one in garbage time Saturday after Alabama shutout No. 23 Missouri the last time out.

That means the Crimson Tide allowed one touchdown and two field goals in 22 combined possessions playing ranked teams in consecutive games.

Numbers like that help efficiency ratings.

Alabama’s defense ranks No. 8 in points allowed per possession, according to BCFtoys.com. That number sits at 1.42 points surrendered per drive this season. The last Alabama defense to finish a season with a lower allowance was 2018 when teams scored 1.31 points per drive while Alabama’s 2020 national title team gave up 1.82 a game playing all power conference teams.

Taking 21 turnovers in nine games certainly plays a part in driving down the scores per touch percentage.

Another measure is drive success rate, also monitored by BCFtoys.com. It figures the percentage of drives that end with a touchdown or field goal attempt. Alabama’s defense is No. 19 this season (.330) after finishing last year No. 24 (.343). Missouri and LSU combined for .166 success rate the past two games.

All of this context only draws more attention to just how wildly efficient Vanderbilt was in its historic upset of Alabama back in early October.

The Commodores were the only SEC team to finish a game without a turnover, scored on six of its nine possessions and never finished a drive in its own territory.

Alabama’s other loss was completely different.

Tennessee had a season-high 15 possessions, scored touchdowns on just three while turning it over three times. Alabama, however, never scored off those takeaways while giving two of its own back to the Vols at the peak of the Tide’s offensive struggles.

The Tide has tightened up its sloppiness in that regard. After giving away six possessions in the Vanderbilt-South Carolina-Tennessee span, it hasn’t committed a single turnover in the past two games it robbed six combined from Missouri and LSU.

That pushed Alabama’s turnover margin to +10, good for a tie for No. 8 nationally and No. 1 in the SEC. Just two years ago, Alabama was No. 80 in turnover margin at -2.

Lessons learned but no time to sleep on that success.

Alabama has a pair of SEC games left with two of the more careless teams in the league. It goes to Oklahoma (-1 turnover margin with 18 lost) and hosts Auburn (-10 turnover margin with 18 lost).

No team in the nation felt the burn of possessions squandered more than the Tigers, the No. 127 team in turnover margin. The only power conference team ranked lower is Florida State, a historic dumpster fire aided by a -14 turnover disparity.

That’s a 24-possession difference between the programs that scrapped for the last playoff spot a year ago.