It's not uncommon for rookie quarterbacks to have a difficult time adjusting to the NFL when they first get going.
Since 2000, the 114 rookie quarterbacks who have started a game as a rookie after being drafted in the Top 100 are 26-88 in their respective debuts. Even the good ones who go on to have phenomenal rookie seasons and careers can struggle their first time out.
Furthermore, rookie quarterbacks drafted first overall are 0-14-1 in their debuts since 2002. If we're listening to NFL history, that bodes well or the Tennessee Titans on Sunday when they open the 2024 regular season against Caleb Williams and the Chicago Bears.
But does this historical trend actually matter and apply to the Bears in 2024?
Home or Away
One argument for this year being different is that the Bears have the luxury of playing at home. Williams will not be dealing with the hostile environment of a road game in Week 1 and will instead be going through a more comfortable game day routine supported by home fans.
You'd think being home or away would have a significant impact on the performance of rookie quarterbacks in their debuts. Comfort is key. But of the 15 number one overall picks that are 0-14-1 since 2002, 8 have made their first start at home. That's over half.
Even at Soldier Field, history would suggest the Titans have a good chance at beating Williams this weekend...But all of these former number one overall picks are missing one thing Williams has on his side: A supporting cast.
Unique circumstances
It's rare for a rookie quarterback who goes first overall to walk into a seemingly perfect situation. Usually the teams picking at the top of the draft are there for a reason: their roster sucks! But the Bears finished the 2023 season at 7-10 and were a few close losses away from seriously hunting for a playoff spot.
Williams is blessed with a proven playcaller in offensive coordinator Shane Waldron. He has an offensive line that returns four starters from the 2023 squad. He has more weapons than he may know what to do with. DJ Moore and Keenan Allen were two of 12 NFL wide receivers to surpass 1,200 receiving yards in 2023. They are joined by Top 10 draft pick Rome Odunze, a talented pair of tight ends in Cole Kmet and Gerald Everett, and a newly signed D'Andre Swift in the backfield.
This is not your average situation. And the Bears in 2024 have plans to be much more competitive than your usual team that just picked first overall. The Titans (and Titans fans) cannot afford to look at this game as a walk in the park.
I really think that history is irrelevant on Sunday. If the Titans are able to bring pressure at Williams and make him uncomfortable, they'll have a good shot of stealing a victory in Chicago as underdogs (+4). But with the defense, playcalling, and offensive weapons surrounding the rookie QB, first game jitters and some blitz packages won't win this game on it's own.
