Here’s why the future of Geno Smith in Seattle is undecided — and how it could play out

Anyone getting a sense of déjà vu?

A year ago this is how the off-season played out, relating to Geno Smith:

— The Seahawks didn’t cut him before a $12.7m guarantee tolled, this was seen to be confirmation he would be back with the team

— Adam Schefter then put out a tweet noting that his 2024 cap-hit provided value to the Seahawks, or any other team that wanted to reach out to see if he was available via trade

— John Schneider, during a series of media interviews, was non-committal about Smith when asked — preferring instead to quickly turn the subject to Drew Lock. Mike Macdonald and Ryan Grubb did the same thing, with Grubb noting he’d provided parenting advice to ‘new dad’ Lock

— The combine came and went, no trade materialised, and Schneider’s tone suddenly changed as he began to describe Smith as ‘their guy’ once Lock had signed for the Giants. When they acquired Sam Howell shortly after Lock’s decision, Schneider made it clear he was only coming in to be Smith’s backup

I get the sense the game is afoot once again.

Firstly, Macdonald hardly gave a reassuring answer on Smith when asked by Mike Salk whether he would return in 2025:

Let’s be honest here, how do you think this question would’ve been answered when talking about any of the clear franchise quarterbacks in the league with other teams? It’s very easy to say, ‘absolutely, yes’ if there’s no doubt.

In his press conference the next day, Macdonald gave a more thoughtful and detailed answer that was widely reported as a significant positive in terms of Smith’s likelihood of returning. I wasn’t so sure:

I don’t think there’s any doubt that Macdonald wants Geno back. There’s never been any deviation in his praise of the quarterback during the last few months. A young, still inexperienced Head Coach probably prefers an experienced signal caller. I can’t imagine he wants to dive into developing a younger, less experienced quarterback, on top of managing the team. Whether that’s a rookie or a reclamation project.

However, this quote is significant:

“I feel like Geno’s best for the team right now. I’ll be involved with it. Ultimately it’s not my decision. It’s a Seahawks decision”

This is the key point. Any continuation of the relationship has to be right for the team. And that’s where the problem might be.

I don’t think John Schneider wants to absorb Smith’s $44.5m cap-hit next season and would prefer to reduce that, without any multi-year commitment to a player who turns 35 later this year. I suspect he’d like to retain annual outs in a compromise contract. I also think he was very prepared to move on a year ago if a good trade offer was forthcoming at the combine and he’ll be willing to move on again if needs be.

Therefore, it comes down to Smith and his representatives. How willing are they to compromise? Their initial play will be to ask for the kind of money paid to the likes of Kirk Cousins (four-years, $100m guaranteed). The Seahawks will balk at that, especially in light of the huge waste of money Cousins has proven to be. A bad contract from a year ago will not act as a precedent.

The Seahawks may grant Smith’s people the opportunity to see what’s out there at the combine. It’s the only way they can establish a market. If other teams are not prepared to give Smith a chunky extension with guarantees over 2-3 years, it increases the likelihood of a compromise with the Seahawks. A lukewarm market two years ago, established at the combine, almost certainly led to the compromise deal Smith signed in 2023.

Smith’s representatives could be aggressive and challenge the Seahawks to cut their client if they’re not willing to play on the $44.5m cap-hit or give him a multi-year commitment. I’m not sure that’d achieve much — the team would probably call their bluff, rather than cave. Based on what connected people are saying (more on that shortly) I get the impression Smith’s representatives are making it clear they want a commitment from the team financially and in term. That will increase the likelihood of a parting if they retain that stance.

There will likely be some brinkmanship on both sides and it’ll come down to whether common ground can be found. I don’t think the Seahawks are desperate to move on and would probably rather retain him as a cost-effective bridge, rather than waltz into the unknown. But they’re almost certainly not going to pay him a big contract and that’s probably what he wants. However, if the rest of the league won’t pay him a big contract, why should the Seahawks? They’ll argue they’re only bidding against themselves. So can the player and team establish a fair compromise that suits all concerned? At the moment I’m not sure either party can answer that.

With so many teams needing a quarterback and with a weak QB class in the draft, there could be more trade interest. Pete Carroll is interviewing for the Raiders job on Monday. If he gets it, it’s easy to imagine him pushing for a reunion with Smith.

Pay attention to certain connected journalists. Brady Henderson is one of them. Listen to what he had to say on 710 Seattle Sports on Thursday. Then in the second video you’ll hear Bryan Walters, aka former fair-catch specialist and now a pundit for the Seahawks pre and post-game shows, discussing the same topic on 710 Seattle Sports:

If you’re wondering about the reference to Jordan Babineaux in the clip with Walters, he recently predicted that Geno Smith would not be back with the Seahawks next year. It’s interesting to hear talk of completely re-working the offense, after a few years of things not clicking.

I think it’s pretty easy to work out what the situation is:

1. There will not be a big extension for Geno Smith

2. They will not keep him on a $44.5m cap-hit

3. He will return next year if a compromise agreement can be reached, likely providing a financial benefit to Smith while lowering his cap-hit and giving the Seahawks an annual ‘out’

I think anything could happen. Trade, cut, compromise agreement. I don’t think it’s a coincidence the way certain people are talking about this subject.

I’ll finish with this. Whoever the Seahawks appoint as offensive coordinator will be a major tell. If it’s Hank Fraley, it’s very hard to imagine the team saying to him, ‘OK Hank, your first task is to establish a new starting quarterback’ and it be some kind of reclamation project or rookie. If they appoint someone like Josh McCown, who has just done an excellent job helping to reinvent Sam Darnold, that’s a different scenario completely and they might be more open-minded about change at the position.