Connor McDavid, Mattias Ekholm, and Stuart Skinner were not on the plane today as their teammates flew to Vegas for the start of their four-game road trip. The Edmonton Oilers sit two points behind LA for second place in the Pacific Division, and while home-ice advantage would be nice, the Oilers would rather be healthy when the playoffs begin.
The Oilers and Kings will meet in the first round for the fourth consecutive season. It isn’t official yet, but LA is seven points back of Vegas, while Vancouver and Calgary are eight and nine points behind Edmonton. The only question to be answered is: Will LA or Edmonton have home-ice advantage when their playoff series begins, either on Sunday, April 20th or Monday the 21st?
LA wraps up its regular season on the 17th, and rarely does the NHL make a team start its playoffs two days later. If LA has home ice advantage, then they will have to share their facility with the LA Lakers. But the Lakers aren’t guaranteed home-court advantage right now. They are battling Memphis for fourth place. If they finish fourth, they will open at home, and the NBA first round begins on the 19th. There is a chance, depending on arena availability, that the Oilers and Kings don’t start until the 21st. Last year the NHL playoffs began on April 20th with two games. There were four games on the 21st, and then the Oilers/Kings and Stars/Golden Knights started on the 22nd.
The Oilers want home-ice advantage, and they play the Kings twice in their final nine games — those two outcomes will play a big role in who starts on home ice. But the Oilers are wisely not going to push any of their injured players to return early, just to gain home ice. McDavid resumed skating last week and he, along with Ekholm and Skinner, might join the team later on the trip, but there is no rush. Ekholm has been battling a nagging injury for weeks, and they decided it was best to rest him and allow him to be fully healthy when the playoffs begin. Skinner got hit in the head by Mikko Rantanen’s knee last Wednesday, and being in concussion protocol meant he’d be out for at least one week. McDavid has a lower-body injury (I’m confident it is a groin), and he resumed skating last week. He is expected to be ready before the regular season ends.
The good news is Trent Frederic went on the road trip and will be skating with the team. Doesn’t mean he will play, but the fact he graduated from skating on his own to being with the team is much-needed progress.
WILL HOME-ICE ADVANTAGE MATTER?
Recently home-ice advantage has mattered a lot in the first round. Last season seven of eight home teams won their series. In 2022 and 2023, six of eight home teams won the series. In 2021 and 2020 there were no fans in the stands and in 2019 five road teams won, while in 2018 seven home teams won. If we look at the past five seasons (with fans) of the 40 first-round series, the road team has won 11 times.
However, each series and situation is different, and the Oilers’ playoff roster could look much different than what we’ve seen all year (and definitely recently). McDavid, Ekholm, Skinner, Frederic and Evander Kane will make the Oilers’ roster much better than the one we will see on this four-game road trip — more skill, more aggression and much more depth.
The Kings have been great on home ice this season going 27-4-4, but they also have the fewest road wins (14-19-5) of any playoff-bound team. It would be interesting to see why they are so good at home but have the ninth-fewest wins in the NHL on the road. Edmonton has the 12th-best P% on the road thus far. They have the 10th-best winning % when they score first, and they have the seventh-best w% when they allow the first goal. They’ve shown a decent ability to come back on the road, while the Kings are 5-13-2 on the road when they allow the first goal.
The Kings are a good team, but so are the Oilers and Edmonton has the two best players, which is a big advantage in any series.
LEON DRAISAITL’S DOMINANT PLAY…
Leon Draisaitl is having an MVP-like season. He returned to the lineup on Saturday and scored the tying goal and his league-leading 11th game-winning goal in overtime. He also set the NHL record for most OT goals in one season with six.
Draisaitl joined some elite groups on Saturday. He is the 15th player with four 50-goal seasons.
Four 50-goal seasons: Draisaitl, Michel Goulet, Tim Kerr and Jari Kurri.
Five 50-goal seasons: Pavel Bure, Phil Esposito, Bobby Hull, Brett Hull and Steve Yzerman.
Six 50-goal seasons: Marcel Dionne, Guy Lafleur and Mario Lemieux.
Nine 50-goal seasons: Mike Bossy, Wayne Gretzky and Alex Ovechkin.
He also became only the ninth player with four seasons with 50 goals and 50 assists. He’s the only active player to do it (four times) and the first since Lemieux did it for the sixth time in 1997.
Four times: Draisaitl and Kurri.
Five times: Esposito and Yzerman.
Six times: Dionne, Lafleur and Lemieux.
Seven times: Bossy.
Nine times: Gretzky.
He is a guaranteed first-ballot Hall of Fame player and he’s only halfway through his NHL career. It is extremely rare to see a player with an elite combination of passing and shooting. It is quite comical to think that some people claimed he was only good because he played with McDavid. Over the past decade Draisaitl ranks third in goals (396), fifth in assists (549) and second in points (945). He has a very realistic chance to join the very exclusive club of players with 700 goals and 1,000 assists.
Only Gretzky, Gordie Howe, Jaromir Jagr and Dionne have done it. Sidney Crosby needs 81 goals to become the fifth. Draisaitl needs 302 goals and 444 assists to reach those milestones — very doable when you consider he will likely play another 10 seasons. It is really remarkable what he is doing.
