We here at CanucksArmy are kicking off our season previews for each Vancouver Canucks player for the upcoming 2024-2025 season. In this exercise, we will set the expectations for a particular player and discuss what their season might look like if they meet, exceed, or go below expectations.
Today, we’ll discuss the goals and expectations for freshly signed Danton Heinen.
Heinen was a top priority of the Canucks this offseason, as he was signed just 30 minutes into the free agency window opening on July 1st. The club signed Heinen to a team-friendly two-year $4.5 million contract, paying him $2.25 million annually. This comes in much lower than AFP Analytics projections of a three-year $2.915 million annually for Heinen. The Langley native took a hometown discount to play in Vancouver.
The former Boston Bruin is coming off the second-best season of his career, scoring 17 goals and 19 assists for 36 points with a plus-16 rating in 74 games. However, come playoff time, Heinen struggled to stay in the lineup, playing in just eight of the Bruins’ 13 games. And when he was in the lineup, he struggled to produce offensively, posting just one assist in those eight games.
Heinen has played 487 regular-season games throughout his seven-year career, amounting to 87 goals and 212 points. Although his career average of 0.44 points per game for a middle-six forward is impressive, he’s most known for his two-way ability. Heinen is sound defensively and was trusted as one of the main penalty killers on the league’s seventh-best penalty kill last season.
Allvin detailed some of the reasons the Canucks made him a priority add this offseason:
“Danton’s skill set will fit in nicely with the way we want to play hockey,” said Allvin. “His speed and ability to kill penalties will be a big boost for our group. We also feel he can contribute offensively, move up and down the lineup from time to time, and use his body and size to his advantage.”
If you haven’t already and want to know more about Danton Heinen’s game, check out our latest “The Tape” series, which offers shift-by-shift analysis of the two-way forward’s play.
Now, let’s set some realistic expectations for Heinen this upcoming 2024-2025 season.
Meeting expectations: 12-goal, 30-point season with hovering around the middle six.
Heinen has only hit this 12-goal plateau in three of his seven seasons. However, he came close twice, finishing with 10 and 11 in two other seasons. And when he was in the single digits, he played a lesser role on a poor team. With the trajectory the Canucks team is on, a 12-goal pace as a middle-six player is certainly within reach.
The 30-point mark is definitely more attainable for the 6’2″ forward. He’s produced 30+ points in four of his seven NHL seasons, with a career-high of 47 in his rookie year. For Heinen to hit this number, he would need to play some games elevated in the lineup. Heinen would only disrupt the third-line duo of Dakota Joshua and Conor Garland if there’s an injury. Leaving only Elias Pettersson or JT Miller’s line as possible options.
Due to his versatility to move up and down the lineup, Heinen is likely to be the one who benefits from an injury higher on the roster. With that in mind, even if he doesn’t carve out a consistent role in the top nine, Heinen should hit this number with just his short elevated injury stints.
Exceeding expectations: First 20-goal season of his career, plays the majority of the season in the top six.
There were five Canucks who set career highs in goals last season (JT Miller, Brock Boeser, Nils Höglander, Dakota Joshua and Sam Lafferty). Could Heinen be the next to set his career high this year? He was one shy of tying his high of 18 last season. 19 sets a career-high, and if he is to hit that, one more crosses our 20-goal mark.
One clear vision for this to occur is if he wins the second-line left-wing spot out of training camp. However, Heinen will have his work cut out for him as he’ll be battling with Nils Höglander and Daniel Sprong for two roster spots in the top six.
However, neither of the players he’s going to be competing with has ever won this battle outright. Höglander earned top-six minutes for the first time halfway through last season when the club needed an offensive punch. Despite his goal-scoring prowess, Sprong has never been able to convince his coaches that he’s earned that role.
So Heinen in the top six might not be as farfetched of a prediction after all. And if that’s the case, and he’s playing on a line with Pettersson or Miller, 20 goals would nearly be expected from Heinen.
Below expectations: Stays glued to the fourth line, sub 25 points with no penalty killing time.
Despite being the most established player of the three battling for the top six spots, there is a world where he loses that job. Höglander and Sprong are both more attractive offensive threats needed for a top-six role. Three of the four locked-down top-six forwards (Pettersson, Miller, and Jake DeBrusk) are all trusted defensive forwards, so the team doesn’t necessarily need Heinen’s two-way ability up there.
If he plays on the fourth line, then it’s likely Heinen will disappoint offensively. He’s shown in his time with the Ducks and Penguins of Heinen, failing to produce points when playing limited minutes. In the shortened season in Anaheim, he tallied 14 points in 43 games while averaging 14:46 minutes per game. While just two seasons ago, he missed this mark with 22 points despite playing 65 games while averaging 10:45 minutes per game.
Although Heinen excels defensively, he really has only played a big factor on his team’s penalty kills in two of his seven seasons. In fact, he’s averaged under 20 seconds per game in all but those two seasons. And it’s not like the Canucks’ penalty-killing room isn’t already crowded. Dakota Joshua, Teddy Blueger, Jake DeBrusk, Nils Åman, Elias Pettersson and Pius Suter all averaged more shorthanded ice time per game than Heinen did last season.
It isn’t what we’re cheering for, but there is certainly a path where these all occur.
Goals for Danton Heinen in 2024-2025:
- Reach the 40-point total for the first time since his rookie season
- Solidify himself as a focal point of the Canucks penalty killing, finish in the top four for forwards penalty killing time on ice.
- Score double digit goals
- Win the training camp battle for a top-six role to start the season.
Heinen’s first season could end in a number of ways, but it all depends on his deployment. If he plays in a top-six role, he should shatter these goals. Or, he struggles and solidifies himself as a penalty-killing depth option who can play higher in the lineup in a pinch. We might have to wait until the opening night pre-game line rushes on October 9th against the Calgary Flames to find out.
What do you think, Canucks fans? What are your expectations for a two-way forward like Danton Heinen?
