It makes a lot of sense that a player nicknamed “Högie” tends to sandwich his good seasons in between his bad ones.
Nils Höglander arrived in the NHL for the 2020/21 season, just a year-and-a-half after the Vancouver Canucks selected him 40th overall in the 2019 Entry Draft. He quickly turned heads with a 13-goal, 27-point rookie campaign in just 56 games.
Like many, Höglander experienced a sophomore slump for 2021/22, with his numbers dropping down to just 10 goals and 18 points in 60 games.
By the start of the 2022/23 campaign, the wheels had fallen off, and Höglander soon found himself demoted to the AHL’s Abbotsford Canucks for the first time in his career. But he bounced back there, putting up 32 points in 45 regular season games and adding six more in six playoff games.
Höglander returned to Vancouver for 2023/24 and experienced a true breakout season. He posted 24 goals and 36 points in his first full campaign of 80 games, and seemed poised to solidify himself as a top-six talent – despite a run of just two points in 11 playoff games.
Then came the most recent season of 2024/25. That saw Höglander’s numbers dip again, down to just eight goals and 25 points in 72 games. But, in keeping with his career trend, the 2024/25 season was really two seasons for Höglander – one bad, one better.
After a hottish start of three points in five games, Höglander went absolutely ice-cold. He notched just two points in his next 26 games. He suffered through a preposterous 35-game goalless streak that wasn’t snapped until January 14 against the Winnipeg Jets. It was the tough start to end all tough starts, and for a while, it seemed like it was going to be permanent.
But Höglander did turn things around. He posted 16 points in the final half of the year and 10 points in his final 15 games.
Presumably, his number one goal for the 2025/26 season is to get off the production rollercoaster and just build on his strong finish to a much more consistently good campaign.
Let’s talk some other, more specific goals and expectations for Höglander.
Meeting Expectations: 20 goals, 40 points, less streaky
We hate to make it all about the numbers for a player as multifaceted as Höglander. He’s not just a goal-scorer, he’s a possession whiz, a strong forechecker, and not always half-bad in his own end. But given that his struggles in 2024/25 specifically centred around long, goalless droughts, the key expectation for Höglander to meet this year is an expectation of production – and more consistent production, at that.
Setting the bar at Höglander’s 24-goal performance of 2023/24 might be a tad too high. He did score on 20% of his shots that season, well above the norm and almost double his career average otherwise.
But that 24-goal, 12-assist balance was never ideal, anyway.
If Höglander can get the goals back up to about 20 and get his assists to about that same rate, he’d be sitting at the kind of statline that everyone should be reasonably satisfied with.
It’s not that out of reach, either. Despite his struggles, Höglander posted a career-high 17 assists last year. And if the goal is a point-per-game rate of 0.50, that’s the exact rate he scored at in the latter half of the season.
He’s just never done it over a full season’s length. Find a way to do that, and at an increased – but still well below league-average – salary of $3 million, no one will find much reason to complain.
Above Expectations: A consistent spot in the top six, and production to match
It’s simple enough to say that if 20 goals and 20 assists is meeting expectations, then exceeding expectations just means scoring more. But it’s actually about more than that. It’s about Höglander’s place in the lineup.
Last season, there was some debate as to whether or not Höglander really needed or deserved to be in the Canucks’ top six. It’s been noticed in the past, it must be said, that Höglander tends to score about the same regardless of where he’s lining up. That 24-goal campaign of 2023/24 saw him put up just as many goals in the bottom six as in the top six.
But the game has changed a little as of 2025/26. Previously, it was about what sort of placement would be best for Höglander and his development. Now, we must think about what is best for the team itself.
It’s not news that the Canucks’ forward corps has taken some hits in the last year or so. The top six is, for lack of a better term, undefined. We can count Elias Pettersson, Brock Boeser, and probably Jake DeBrusk as its de facto components, and the rest is very much up in the air.
The Canucks could really, really benefit from Höglander firmly establishing himself as a permanent fixture on a top six wing. Do that, and the rest of the lineup becomes a lot easier to sort out – and the increased production surely follows.
There have been occasional sparks of real chemistry between Höglander and Pettersson, and many noticed that the duo had a decent run with Boeser near the end of last season. If Höglander can consistently become the sort of linemate that elevates Pettersson’s game, well, now we’re going a bit beyond ‘above expectations’ and into ‘solving most of the Canucks’ problems single-handedly.’
That’d be great, obviously. For now, though, we’re happy to set our high bar at a more consistent place in the lineup and more consistent scoring from that heightened placement.
Below Expectations: Another slump or two, and probably a trade?
Few players can afford a cold start to 2025/26 less than Höglander.
It was clear at times over the past couple of seasons that Höglander had lost some confidence from the coaching staff. That staff included new head coach Adam Foote, so it’s not exactly as if Höglander is starting from carte blanche.
If he goes through some of the same goalless and pointless stretches as he did in 2024/25 – especially if they come early on in the season – Höglander will likely be putting his future in Vancouver at risk.
The Canucks’ forward corps can best be described as lacking in firepower and a little overstuffed in terms of depth. The ‘too many wingers’ problem was alleviated by the trading of Dakota Joshua to Toronto.
But that may not be the end of it. There will be pressure on wingers from lower down the depth chart in the form of Linus Karlsson, Arshdeep Bains, Jonathan Lekkerimäki, Max Sasson (who the organization reportedly sees as a long-term winger), and more. If Höglander isn’t producing with consistency, it wouldn’t be at all surprising to see him dumped for a mid-round draft pick, especially since doing so would open up an additional $3 million to spend on upgrades.
A failure to meet expectations very likely means that Höglander is shipped out of town. It sounds harsh, but it’s true.
Goals for Nils Höglander in 2025/26
– At least 20 goals and 20 assists.
– A more consistent placement in the lineup.
– Continued development of chemistry with a centre, ideally Elias Pettersson.
– Stop requiring as much sheltering (63.03% offensive zone starts last year).
– An increase in average ice-time.
– Maintain positive possession metrics with increased ice time.
– Try some penalty killing?
Höglander has always been a player who does a lot right, and many of these are fairly rare qualities in hockey. He holds onto the puck like a particularly determined dog on a particularly tasty bone. He uses his low centre of gravity to frustrate opposing checkers. He’s tricky enough with his stick to pull off a Michigan, even if he hasn’t yet at the NHL level.
His profile as a prospect and then player has always remained fairly steady. It’s the results that have varied, and sometimes wildly.
We feel at this point that we’re probably overusing the word ‘consistency’ and its derivatives in this article, but it really is ‘the word’ when it comes to Höglander. The version of him that showed up at the start of 2024/25 was simply not up to snuff. The version of him that finished the year was well over and above the value of a $3 million cap hit on average.
The number one thing that the Canucks want to be able to do with Höglander in 2025/26 is count on him, night in and night out. If he can become a more reliable contributor, he’ll have hit by far his most important goal.
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