The Kansas City Chiefs have wrapped up their mandatory mini-camp, and fans are in the final waiting period before training camp in late July. This period is generally a time where we've seen extensions get done for players. Last year, Creed Humphrey and Harrison Butker signed new contracts shortly before the regular season.
While we all eagerly await a Trey Smith extension before the July 15th deadline, there's another possible extension that could catch Chiefs fans off guard.
George Karlaftis and Trent McDuffie are now both eligible to be extended off their rookie deals. For McDuffie, a two-time All-Pro, there's no question that his extension is going to put him atop the corner market, especially when you factor in recent deals for Jaycee Horn and Derek Stingley Jr. While McDuffie has earned such a paycheck, his former first-round running mate poses a much more challenging financial situation.
Getting a deal done with George Karlaftis might not be easy for the Chiefs.
The perception of Karlaftis from Chiefs fans and NFL fans alike is that he's a solid starter but not elite. If you were to start listing the top edge rushers in the NFL, you'd probably take a while to get to him. However, there are a lot more factors at work when it comes to a contract than just where a player ranks at his position.
With 24.5 sacks in his first three years, Karlaftis is averaging 8.5 sacks and 32 pressures per season while playing 64%, 75% and 83% of the defensive snaps. Still just 24 years old, Karlaftis would have plenty of teams lining up to pay him if he hit the open market.
The Chicago Bears raised eyebrows around the league when they traded for Montez Sweat and gave him a four-year $82 million deal with $52 million guaranteed. Sweat was in his fourth year for the Commanders and tallied 29 sacks over four years and got his big extension at age 27.
Looking at Sweat's extension as a starting point for Karlaftis makes sense, yet Karlaftis has been better and is younger, so he would likely surpass those numbers from 2023.
Another comparable player is Gregory Rousseau, who signed a five-year $56 million deal with the Buffalo Bills this offseason. Rousseu has averaged 7 sacks a season and 28 pressures, and he signed his deal at the age of 25. There's a strong argument to be made that Karlaftis should top his number as well, given that he's younger and statistically better. He was also taken with the exact same pick (30th) just one year prior to Karlaftis being drafted in 2022.
Looking at the contracts of edge rushers across the league, there's a real chance Karlaftis and his agent have the right to ask for a deal north of $100 million with $25 million APY that would put him ahead of Sweat in total value but behind some of the NFL's elite rushers—Myles Garrett, T.J. Watt, Maxx Crosby, and Nick Bosa.
As we mentioned earlier, so much of a contract extension is about timing as well as a player's production. Fans might not mention Karlaftis in the same breath as those names, but given his age, production profile, and pedigree there's a strong chance he could price his way out of Kansas City.
With extensions needed for McDuffie, Smith, and Karlaftis, there's a real chance the Chiefs could be forced into top-of-market deals for all three players. In 2022, the Chiefs refused to make Tyreek Hill the highest-paid wide receiver in the league. Will they do that with these three?
The Chiefs are in uncharted financial waters now. It was one thing for Brett Veach to walk away from John Dorsey's draft picks, such as Tyreek Hill or Demarcus Robinson or Marcus Peters. So far, several of Veach's draft picks have gotten paid: Mike Danna, Noah Gray, and Creed Humphrey.
If Veach decides he can't pay everyone, don't be surprised if Karlaftis is the odd man out when it comes to extensions in Kansas City. It will be interesting to see how the team handles this next wave of contracts, knowing Karlaftis is going to command so much.
