Geno Smith Faces Fewer Blitzes as Seahawks Offense Struggles

The Seattle Seahawks have a hidden issue on offense that’s related to the offensive line, but not exclusively.

Remember how heavily Geno Smith would get blitzed at the start of the season? Vance Joseph’s Denver Broncos defense blitzed Geno on half of his dropbacks, and other than the bad start to the game, Smith generally handled it well. Smith shredded the New England Patriots, who blitzed him more than 35% of his dropbacks.

Well the blitzing has steadily dropped, and with it, the Seahawks passing offense has not been as effective.

 NFL Pro

Over the last four games, Geno Smith has been blitzed significantly less than in the first four games. The New York Giants sacked Smith seven times, but the other three teams only managed one sack. Outside of the Giants game, Smith is getting sacked less, he’s getting more time to throw—three of the four games in question doubled as his longest average TtT—and the passing offense has gotten worse.

Geno Smith’s EPA/play (via Rbsdm.com)

Weeks 1-4: 11th
Weeks 5-8: 22nd

Interestingly enough, Geno has a slightly higher EPA/play this season when blitzed vs. not blitzed, which is the opposite of his previous two full seasons as a Seahawks starter and the three games and fourth quarter he played in 2021. I don’t think Smith suddenly forgot how to play football against a standard four-man rush.

This is what I wrote on my personal social media account after the Lions game:

Geno Smith has been blitzed at the 6th highest rate this season among all QBs who’ve started every game (per @NextGenStats).

37/53 for 444 yards, 3 TDs, 2 INTs. One of the few QBs with a positive EPA/dropback.

And then again after the 49ers and Giants losses:

The 49ers only blitzed Geno Smith five times out of 50+ dropbacks.

The Giants only blitzed about 22% of the time the week prior.

Think the book might be out on this passing offense.

But then the Bills game happened, sans DK Metcalf, and I think we’ve got a real problem on our hands.

Smith has gone from one of the most blitzed QBs to one of the least. The Seahawks passing game is languishing, and they haven’t been a good running team regardless of whether they’re facing blitz-heavy defenses or not.

As I see it, there are two issues with the Seahawks passing offense, independent of the running game struggles:

• The offensive line already can’t deal with four-man pressures very well. Smith is pressured at a slightly above-average rate when not blitzed, and above-average when blitzed. This is not a good pass-blocking unit and unless you have a dismal pass rush like Atlanta, you’ll take your chances that you can win with four and drop the rest into coverage. In the case of the Giants, Dexter Lawrence is a one-man interior blitz.
• The Seahawks do not have enough players who can stretch the field vertically. Seattle’s offense has become steadily less explosive throughout the Geno Smith era. They’re below-average in explosive runs right now after being above-average two seasons ago and middling last season. They’re below-average in explosive play rate right now and their passing is heavily DK Metcalf aided. Ryan Grubb’s UW offense had three vertical threats at all times, the Seahawks have one. Against the Bills, they basically had zero. Jaxon Smith-Njigba was never a big field-stretcher in college and Tyler Lockett has lost enough of a step to where he is not remotely the downfield threat that he was even two or three seasons ago. That means opposing defenses are willing to drop into coverage and they know that Metcalf is the only vertical threat to worry about. It’s like an NBA team that has no three-point shooting on the floor so the defense just packs the paint knowing they don’t have to guard from beyond the free throw line. The Bills were sitting on short routes all game for a reason, and there is not enough speed at wide receiver (except DK) to create downfield separation. It’s fundamentally harder to move the ball on offense when you don’t have a lot of explosive pass play threats and your o-line doesn’t pass protect well enough to generate those types of opportunities.

I think there are a lot more interconnected roster flaws than we want to admit with regards to this offense, but the onus is ultimately on Grubb to adjust to the situation. You can’t run the same offense regardless of opposition tendencies, which is what it feels like the Seahawks are doing. In a rare moment of insight, Tom Brady criticized the Seahawks offense on the FOX broadcast.

Time is running out to “make it right” and at least get the passing game back on the right track.