Franchise tag prediction for Sam Darnold adds intrigue to QB's future with Vikings

After the latest impressive performance from Sam Darnold this past Sunday against the Seattle Seahawks, more and more Minnesota Vikings fans are wondering what it might take to keep the veteran quarterback around in the Twin Cities after the 2024 season.

Minnesota's original plan was to roll with Darnold as the team's starting signal-caller this year and then transition the job over to J.J. McCarthy next season, who the team selected with the 10th overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft.

But that plan has become much less of a certainty in the last few weeks as Darnold has helped lead the Vikings to a 13-2 record and a shot at the No. 1 seed in the NFC with two games left in the regular season. If Minnesota makes it to the NFC Championship or the Super Bowl this year, then it's going to be really difficult for the team to just move on from him in the offseason.

Franchise tag for Sam Darnold could be too expensive for the Minnesota Vikings in 2025

CBS Sports's Joel Corry recently shared his projections for what the franchise and transition tag amounts could be for each position group in the NFL next season.

Corry's projections are based on the league's salary cap increasing to $275 million in 2025, and for the quarterback position, he has the franchise tag amount for next year at about $39.6 million. So if the Vikings were to place the franchise tag on Darnold after this season, it would likely cost them almost $40 million in 2025.

If the NFL's salary cap actually increases to $275 million next year, then Minnesota would have around $78 million in cap space to spend. The Vikings would clearly have enough to afford Darnold if they placed the franchise tag on him in 2025, but is that something they will want to do?

Minnesota just spent the last handful of years with a highly-paid quarterback on its roster, and it was a strategy that resulted in only one playoff win.

Everything the Vikings did this past offseason with the contracts they gave out was done with the expectation that their quarterback won't be taking up a ton of cap space during the next few years. Re-signing Darnold or placing the franchise tag on him could really force Minnesota to change a bunch of the plans for the roster that have already been made.

Obviously, things change all the time, but the Vikings are really going to have to figure out if they think paying Darnold $40 million or more per season is going to be worth the other roster sacrifices that will likely have to be made if they keep him around in 2025.

Bringing back Darnold would probably mean Minnesota wouldn't re-sign Cam Bynum, Byron Murphy, Harrison Smith, or Aaron Jones next year, they wouldn't have enough money to sign multiple big-name free agents or extend players like Andrew Van Ginkel, Ivan Pace Jr., or Josh Metellus, and they would have to go back to relying on the NFL Draft for their roster depth.

If Darnold leads the Vikings to the franchise's first-ever Super Bowl win, then they can give him whatever amount of money he wants to come back in 2025. But if doesn't do this, then Minnesota's best option would probably be to place the franchise tag on him and then trade him to another team in the offseason.

Darnold is easily the top quarterback who is scheduled to become a free agent in 2025, and multiple NFL teams are always in need of a new starting signal-caller. So, the Vikings probably wouldn't have much trouble finding a trade partner for Darnold if they place the franchise tag on him.

What Minnesota does with Darnold is going to be the biggest question for the team's upcoming offseason. But until that happens, Vikings fans are just going to sit back and continue to enjoy what he's been able to help the team accomplish in his first year with the franchise.