Forget position needs! NY Jets nailed it with Azareye’h Thomas pick

NFL fans like to grade draft picks based on positional needs.

So, when New York Jets fans saw that the team drafted a cornerback in the third round, many groaned.

Cornerback was already one of the most solidified positions on the Jets’ roster. They had more pressing needs to address when they came on the clock at No. 73, including multiple others on defense, such as defensive tackle and edge rusher.

In response to Jets fans clamoring for the team to plug a hole with the 73rd overall pick, first-year general manager Darren Mougey channeled Mike Tomlin… “We do not care.” (He didn’t actually say it, but that is the message sent by his decision.)

Mougey played the “BPA” card to a T by selecting Florida State cornerback Azareye’h Thomas.

Based on consensus rankings, the 20-year-old cover man is arguably the best value selection of Mougey’s debut draft class. Thomas was ranked as the No. 52 overall prospect at NFL Mock Draft Database, and the Jets nabbed him 21 slots later. As recently as April 4, he was up at No. 40 on the consensus board. It was not uncommon to see him mocked to teams in the late-first round.

When you come across a value like that, you can’t pass it up. Sure, Thomas projects as a backup if the Jets played a game today, but you don’t make draft picks to win games today. You make them to win games over the next four-plus years. Past the first round (where you do need to get a day-one starter), you focus on accumulating talent and worry about the depth chart later.

Mougey crushed it with the Thomas pick. A dive into the Florida native’s profile shows a prospect that Jets fans should feel extremely lucky to have landed in the third round.

Tantalizing trajectory

When evaluating a draft prospect, one of the most important factors to consider is his trajectory. Where does he stand in his development? Did he gradually improve throughout his career or remain stagnant?

Thomas offers an enticing trajectory heading into the NFL. He is only 20 years old (will turn 21 in June) and improved each season throughout his three-year college career, peaking with a fantastic junior season in 2024.

Thomas immediately secured a rotational role as an 18-year-old true freshman in 2022. Each year, Florida State trusted Thomas to play a larger role, and he responded with improved production:

• 2022 (11 games): 327 snaps, 11.1 yards per target allowed, 119.3 passer rating allowed
• 2023 (14 games): 493 snaps, 7.2 yards per target allowed, 89.2 passer rating allowed
• 2024 (12 games): 755 snaps, 4.3 yards per target allowed, 50.2 passer rating allowed

The Jets are getting a 21-year-old prospect who took major leaps in each of his past two seasons. He’s already trending up and should still have multiple jumps left in the tank when considering his age.

Man-coverage upside

Thomas offers a lengthy frame. He stands at 6-foot-1½, which ranks in the 84th percentile among cornerbacks, while his 32⅜-inch arm length ranks in the 80th percentile.

It’s a frame that projects well to press-man coverage in the NFL, which is especially enticing for a Jets team that might become more man-heavy under Aaron Glenn. As the Detroit Lions’ defensive coordinator, Glenn deployed a 47.7% man-coverage rate in 2024, which led the NFL.

On top of his frame, Thomas offers a track record of excellence in man coverage.

Across 109 man-coverage snaps in 2024, Thomas allowed 7-of-14 passing for 60 yards, no touchdowns, and one interception (per PFF). He yielded a 31.8 passer rating in man coverage, ranking 12th-best among FBS cornerbacks with at least 10 man-coverage targets. Joining Thomas in the top 12 were a pair of first-round picks, Jahdae Barron (1st) and Travis Hunter (7th).

Thomas continued showcasing his one-on-one skills at the Senior Bowl.

After his Senior Bowl showing (as a junior going against older prospects), draft analysts such as Matt Miller, Dane Brugler, and Daniel Jeremiah stated that Thomas played his way into the first-round conversation.

It remains to be seen where the Jets will land on the zone-man spectrum in 2024. While Glenn was man-heavy in 2024, he was more balanced over his first few seasons in Detroit. Additionally, defensive coordinator Steve Wilks has generally been a zone-heavy play-caller. Glenn also hinted at using more zone coverage when speaking at the owners meetings.

Either way, Thomas’ outlook in man coverage gives him the potential to become a versatile chess piece in the Jets’ defense. Corners who thrive in man coverage can be trusted to move across the formation and take on different assignments, opening new options for the coaches.

This is a trait the Jets’ new regime appears to prioritize in its corners. On top of already having the lengthy Sauce Gardner, the Jets went out and signed Brandon Stephens in free agency, who has 32-inch arms (70th percentile) and comes from a man-heavy Baltimore defense. Stephens’ ball skills require immense improvement, but he is known for his ability to prevent separation in coverage.

Thomas fits what the Jets are building defensively.

Avoiding big mistakes

In coverage, Thomas comes to the league with a clean track record of avoiding killer mistakes.

Across his three-year career, Thomas was flagged just six times on 1,575 defensive snaps. He had three penalties on 755 snaps in 2024.

Additionally, Thomas kept everything in front of him and avoided critical busts in coverage. Over 357 coverage snaps in 2024, the largest gain he allowed went for just 21 yards. He was one of just four FBS cornerbacks who played 300+ coverage snaps and did not allow a reception for more than 21 yards.

Toss in the fact that Thomas was credited with zero touchdowns allowed, and he was the only cornerback in college football who allowed zero touchdowns and zero receptions of 25+ yards while playing 300+ coverage snaps.

Avoiding these mistakes is a whole different animal in the NFL, but Thomas’ ability to eliminate them in college suggests he is capable of doing the same at the next level.

Why did he slip?

The primary knock on Thomas’ resume is his speed. It’s often cited as a weakness in his scouting reports, and his testing backs it up.

Thomas ran an unofficial 4.58 in the 40-yard dash at Florida State’s pro day. This is weak for the position, ranking in the 17th percentile among cornerbacks.

Interestingly, Thomas’ 10-yard split was 1.55, which is equal to the mean among cornerbacks. The gap between his 10-yard split and his 40-yard dash suggests that his explosiveness is decent enough, but he starts to tail off over long distances. This reassures his ability to close ground in short spaces, while it raises concerns about his catch-up speed on vertical routes.

While Thomas’ 40 time is a legitimate red flag that must be considered, the Jets do not seem worried about it.

When asked about Thomas’ speed, Aaron Glenn broke down his thoughts on testing speed versus in-game speed.

“I really start to look at play speed a little bit more than just timed speed,” Glenn said of Thomas. “I had a guy last year in Brian Branch, I think he ran like a 4.58 also, but his play speed was like 4.3. And I think everyone knows the way that he plays. So, just look at the player and see how they play on the field. That’s more enticing to me than watching a guy run in underwear. Football is football, and [Thomas] played the brand that we want to play.”

There is data to back up Glenn’s claims. According to the X account @RAanalytics, Thomas recorded an In-Game Athleticism score that places him right around the mean for NFL cornerbacks.

Tackling is another weakness that Thomas needs to work on. He had eight missed tackles and a 13.8% missed tackle rate in 2024 (52nd percentile among FBS CB with 400+ snaps).

Similar to his new teammates in New York, Thomas can also improve at generating takeaways. He only had two interceptions on 90 career targets. Thomas is adept at getting his hands on the ball – he had 15 passes defended on 90 targets, which is a solid 17% rate – but he needs to turn more of those deflections into interceptions, much like Sauce Gardner.

Playing the football is something that Aaron Glenn and the Jets’ coaching staff will be prioritizing with the entire cornerback room.

The best pick for the long run

The retooling New York Jets are trying to build a talented roster. Period.

In the quest to achieve that goal, they need to accumulate talented football players, regardless of position. Sacrificing talent to fill short-term needs will make the Jets a worse team in the long run.

Selecting Azareye’h Thomas with the 73rd overall pick was the best choice for Darren Mougey to maximize the talent on the Jets’ roster. Maybe it wasn’t the best choice to maximize the 2025 draft class’s year-one impact, but it should pay dividends in the long run.

In his first draft as a GM, it is promising to see Mougey make this type of selection with one of his earliest picks. Mougey could have easily felt the pressure to fill holes and reached for a worse player at a more desperate position. Perhaps that would have garnered better grades from the Twitter scorekeepers.

Instead, Mougey stuck to his board and landed a player you should not be able to get at No. 73.

Thomas’ resume is unusually impressive for a third-round pick. He is a 21-year-old, three-year player who improved each season and broke out with elite production in his junior year. He plays a premium position and has a physical profile that teams covet in cornerbacks. His tape matches up with his numbers, and he backed it up when he turned heads against older players at the Senior Bowl.

It sure seems like Thomas slipped merely due to his 40 time. If you look at his NFL Mock Draft Database profile, Thomas’ stock was rising through late February, peaking at No. 39 on the consensus board. He saw a big jump after the Senior Bowl. Come March, Thomas’ stock plateaued after not testing in Indianapolis, and it dropped throughout April after Florida State’s pro day.

Testing results should absolutely be considered when evaluating prospects. They provide data points that can be used to compare prospects on an equal plane without requiring variables or context. They also allow us to identify historical trends that can help predict a prospect’s odds of success.

Cornerbacks who run a 4.58 are up against history. That’s a cold-hard fact. It makes sense that Thomas fell out of the first round.

However, Thomas had enough going for him to still be considered a quality second-round prospect despite his 40 time. Landing him with the 73rd overall pick is a highway robbery for the Jets.

It remains to be seen how (and when) Thomas will make his mark in New York. The Jets’ starting cornerback trio is solidified: Sauce Gardner, Brandon Stephens, and Michael Carter II. Injuries happen, so Thomas could easily end up starting plenty of games for the Jets this year, but it seems unlikely that he breaks into the starting lineup entering Week 1.

Perhaps the Jets test out Thomas at safety to see if they can get him on the field quicker. There is a clearer path to immediate playing time at that position.

After all, Glenn did mention Brian Branch when talking about Thomas. The Lions drafted Branch in the second round of the 2023 draft. Branch played slot cornerback in college and ran an identical 40 time to Thomas (4.58) before transitioning to safety in his second NFL season.

We shall see what the Jets have in store for Thomas, but fans need not worry about how and when Thomas will get on the field. Good football players find their way onto the field eventually. Thomas is secured through 2028. His time will come.

When it does, Jets fans will be glad Mougey picked the best player available instead of reaching for a need.