The Falcons are entering Year 2 under Raheem Morris. But he'll need his former first-round pick to prove himself in 2025 to keep his job.
The Atlanta Falcons are once again heading into a season with relatively high expectations. That’s largely due to a roster that now features five former first-round draft picks taken inside the top 20 — four of whom were selected in the top 10. That includes offensive playmakers Kyle Pitts, Drake London, Bijan Robinson, and, most notably, last year’s surprise No. 8 overall pick, Michael Penix Jr.
This group was expected to come together during Raheem Morris’ first season as head coach. Instead, Atlanta suffered its seventh consecutive postseason absence — a continuation of one of the NFL’s most frustrating droughts.
The Falcons are now enduring one of the longest playoff dry spells in professional sports. But they believe they have the solution to end it. Then again, they believed the same thing last offseason when they handed Kirk Cousins a four-year, $180 million deal. That’s why, when talking about the Falcons player facing the most pressure entering 2025, the answer is clearly Penix — now entering his first full season as the declared starter.
The fate of Raheem Morris and Terry Fontenot rests on Michael Penix Jr.
Whether it’s fair or not, Michael Penix Jr. is now tethered to the jobs of both head coach Raheem Morris and general manager Terry Fontenot. And that’s not just speculation.
CBS Sports’ Cody Benjamin placed Morris among the league’s lowest-ranked head coaches this offseason, landing him at No. 27 in the “unproven and underwhelming” category. His 8-9 record in 2024, following a promising 6-3 start, only added to the pressure.
“For a team that was supposed to be a quarterback away going into 2024,” Benjamin wrote, “the young Falcons have a lot of questions after Morris’ situational calls contributed to another non-playoff season in Atlanta. If Michael Penix Jr. delivers under center, the tides could turn.”
The same applies to Fontenot, who made the controversial decision to draft Penix just weeks after committing nearly $200 million to Cousins. For all the talk about building for the future, the optics haven’t aged well. Penix was supposed to be a luxury pick — not a necessity in Year 2.
Instead, Cousins' injury woes, including shoulder and elbow issues late last season, opened the door for Penix to take over the final three games of 2024. He performed well enough that Morris declared him the 2025 starter before spring workouts even began.
Now, there’s no going back.
A franchise QB — or the face of another Falcons rebuild?
Despite some early optimism, the situation surrounding Penix remains a precarious one.
In three starts last season, Penix went 1-2 while completing under 60% of his passes with three touchdowns and three interceptions. Bleacher Report’s Damian Parson noted that while Penix flashed upside, his accuracy and ball placement remain concerns.
“Penix needs to be more consistent from the pocket and improve his accuracy, ball placement, and completion percentage,” Parson wrote. “If these boxes are checked, the Falcons will compete with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers for the NFC South division crown.”
But the margin for error is thin. Bleacher Report’s Brad Gagnon floated a potential nightmare scenario for Atlanta.
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“They move on from Kirk Cousins, who stands out elsewhere while Michael Penix Jr. struggles in his first full year as starting quarterback,” Gagnon wrote.
That scenario would be catastrophic, assuming Atlanta could actually find a suitable trade partner for Cousins. And it wouldn’t just reflect poorly on Penix — it could bring down the entire regime. Another losing season would mean an eighth straight year without a playoff berth, and quite possibly the end of Morris and Fontenot’s tenures in Atlanta.
Even so, Morris has remained calm and confident in public settings.
“Kirk is not in the business of disrupting Michael Penix,” Morris told reporters at minicamp, via Tori McElhaney. “He has a great appreciation for the player Michael is. He has a great appreciation for the person that he is.”
While the Falcons are putting on a unified front, that won’t last long if Penix doesn’t produce early.
Why Michael Penix Jr. must deliver now
The Falcons have been trying to replace Matt Ryan ever since the former MVP left town. They’ve cycled through stopgaps like Marcus Mariota, Desmond Ridder, and now Cousins. But Penix is supposed to be different — a calculated swing on a high-ceiling player with elite arm talent.
If he flops, the long-term damage could be significant. The Falcons not only risk wasting the prime years of Robinson, London, and Pitts, but they’d also face further questions about their vision and leadership.
And there’s still the injury history. Penix’s two ACL tears during college at Indiana remain a part of his narrative. Until he plays a full NFL season, durability will continue to be a major question.
But there’s a reason for hope. NFL Network’s Steve Wyche reported that Falcons coaches have “raved” about Penix all offseason, noting that “Everything we heard positively about him — the way he’s throwing the ball, the way he’s learning things — it’s understated.”
If those reports translate to the field, Penix may finally give Atlanta the long-term answer it’s been searching for.
But if he doesn’t? The Falcons may find themselves back at square one — with a fired coach, a cleaned-out front office, and more years of irrelevance ahead.
