Experts project Geno Smith will improve with the Raiders but not how fans think

Geno Smith’s career turned around for the better when he became the full-time starter for the Seattle Seahawks in 2022. Despite being drafted in 2013, Smith made the first Pro Bowls of his career in 2022 and 2023. He then built on those years in 2024 with career highs in completion percentage (70.4%) and passing yards (4,320). After three straight seasons of some of the best quarterback play in the league, Smith was traded to the Las Vegas Raiders this offseason.

While expectations for the veteran quarterback may not be incredibly high, he is a significant upgrade from who the team has had at quarterback in recent years. Many fans may feel Smith has reached his peak in recent years, but there’s reason to believe he will continue to elevate his game in Vegas. Kevin Patra, in a recent piece on NFL.com, dove into those reasons.

Patra predicted whether quarterbacks who changed teams numbers will be worse or better in 2025. For Smith, the answer was better, but not for the typical quarterback numbers. The analyst isn’t predicting a new career high for the veteran quarterback, instead arguing that Smith will be more efficient by cleaning up his stats in the categories that held him back.

"When stating that I expect better numbers from Smith, I don't think he'll pass for another career high in yardage, as I'm anticipating the Raiders to be more balanced. However, I do expect Smith's efficiency numbers to improve. His -.02 EPA per dropback should improve while he cuts down on the backbreaking INTs. And the 53.8 QBR from 2024 should get back into the 60s, where it was when he was with Carroll."

Kevin Patra (NFL.com)

Geno Smith projected to be a more efficient quarterback for the Raiders

As Patra pointed out, Vegas will strive to be a balanced offense. With Ashton Jeanty in the backfield, Smith probably isn’t going to have 578 attempts like he did last season. However, with the attempts he will get, he must make sure to protect the football, something he didn’t do in 2024. The veteran QB threw 15 interceptions in his final season with the Seahawks.

He must cut that number down if the Raiders are going to be successful with him under center. Hopefully, Las Vegas will be able to showcase the highs he’s shown in recent years, and help him eliminate the weaknesses that held him back.