Experts break down Alabama football's path to upset Georgia

   

Georgia enters the game against Alabama football as the favorite, but the Bulldogs are the ones looking for revenge.

Experts break down Alabama football's path to upset Georgia - al.com

In the most recent matchup, the Crimson Tide beat out Georgia for the SEC Championship Game in 2023. That sent Alabama to the College Football Playoff while keeping the Bulldogs on the outside.

“Last year’s (Alabama) team was really built to beat ‘em,” said Greg McElroy, the former Alabama quarterback. “That’s why they played so well against them and had no problems in the matchup the last time they played. This year is a little different. Georgia has kind of counter-punched a little this year now. Georgia has now, because of Alabama’s impressive showing last year in the SEC title with just brute force, I think Georgia has countered now to become more athletic and more disruptive on the defensive side to make life difficult for those really big offensive linemen and for the big defensive tackles.”

The Bulldogs will face some of the same players from a season ago, but the system is quite different. Kirby Smart remains Georgia’s coach, but Alabama has a new boss in Kalen DeBoer.

The two coaches will face off this weekend as No. 4 Alabama (3-0) battles No. 1/2 Georgia on Saturday (6:30 p.m. CT, ABC) at Bryant-Denny Stadium.

Ahead of the matchup with SEC and CFP implications, McElroy and former Georgia quarterback Aaron Murray, both now ESPN analysts, shared their thoughts with AL.com on the matchup and what Alabama must do to win.

X-factor matchups for Alabama football vs. Georgia

Pass catchers vs. defensive backs, for both teams, is what Murray will be watching.

“Georgia needs to throw the football,” Murray said. “Alabama needs to figure out the back end. Which of the weaknesses is actually going to go out there and have a good game?”

For the second combination, Murray sees unproven elements of the Alabama receivers and the Georgia defensive backs. He thinks Ryan Williams is “super talented” but …

“I still think this receiving core is just good,” Murray said. “I don’t think it’s great. I think it’s good.”

Murray thinks the Alabama receivers have to be better and create more separation.

“They have to win their one-on-ones (against Georgia),” Murray said. “They have to be able to take the top off at times.”

On the other side of the ball, Murray thinks the Georgia secondary “is pretty darn good” but unproven.

“Malaki (Starks) is an absolute beast back there,” Murray said. “I think the guys they have are good, but they just haven’t really been tested so you just don’t know yet.”

Can Alabama’s receivers be elite? And just how good are the Georgia defensive backs?

“That’s the matchup you’re going to be looking for on that side,” Murray said.

Alabama vs. Georgia 2023 SEC championship

Georgia defensive back Malaki Starks (24) breaks up a pass intended for Alabama wide receiver Malik Benson (11) during the first half of the Southeastern Conference championship NCAA college football game in Atlanta, Saturday, Dec. 2, 2023. (AP Photo/John Bazemore)AP

What Alabama must do to beat Georgia

Win the one-on-one matchups. That’s McElroy’s message.

“It’s an NFL game,” McElroy said. “Those two teams force you to play a very NFL style. It’s really all about matchups. So for instance, if I’m Bama and there’s a matchup I really like in the secondary, then I need to do whatever I can do to make sure I have Ryan Williams working against that vulnerable coverage defender. I need to make sure that I identify a scenario, whether it’s situationally, ‘hey on third down they play this. Well hey I can get my back out on a wheel route against that coverage on third down.’”

McElroy also anticipates tendency breakers, which are essentially changes in your actions from what film shows you typically do. An open week like Alabama and Georgia had this past week allowed for self-scouting to illuminate those tendencies.

“They’ll say. “Alright, traditionally in third-and-7, I play man (coverage),’” McElroy said. “Guess what I’m going to play in third-and-7 next week? I’m going to play zone (coverage).’ I think that’s one thing that will absolutely happen.”

Keys for Alabama offense

1. Alabama must protect Jalen Milroe. “If you don’t protect, you’re in big trouble,” McElroy said.

2. Get Milroe going early on the ground. Murray said that will be key in forcing Georgia to be more aggressive on defense and put a safety in the box. “From there, DeBoer will scheme something up. One on one from the slot. One on one on the outside. See if you can take some shots downfield after that.”

3. Take shots over Georgia’s heads. The Bulldogs won’t give many freebies underneath, McElroy said. “Force you to hit the low-percentage throws down the field.”

Alabama’s offense has been filled with explosive plays this season, and that type of offense will have to continue most likely for the Crimson Tide to beat the Bulldogs. This isn’t the game for efficient, methodical offense.

“If I can manufacture chunk yardage against Georgia and I can snap less and hopefully produce bigger plays, then I’m great with that,” McElroy said. “I just don’t think Georgia is a team where you can just line up and say, “Alright today boys, we’re going to have four 12-plus play drives and that’s how we’re going to beat them.’”

Alabama vs. Georgia 2023 SEC championship

Alabama quarterback Jalen Milroe (4) runs the ball against Georgia defensive back Daylen Everette (6) during the first half of the Southeastern Conference championship NCAA college football game in Atlanta, Saturday, Dec. 2, 2023. (AP Photo/Mike Stewart)AP

Keys for Alabama defense

Kentucky won the line of scrimmage against Georgia, and that’s why the Wildcats kept it so close in the Bulldogs’ most recent game, per Murray.

Alabama would be wise to replicate Kentucky’s efforts.

“Carson got hit early and often, and it threw off the rhythm of the offense,” Murray said. “For Alabama, it’s going to be loud, it’s going to be a night game. Can you just get after it? Can you get Georgia in third-and-long situations where you can tee off?”

McElroy echoed Murray that getting pressure on Beck is the path to a win, if not the only path. McElroy doesn’t think there’s a simple answer to stopping the Bulldogs on offense. He sees many ways Georgia can counter the way you try to defend. Offensive coordinator Mike Bobo also calls the game based off the defense’s tendencies.

Georgia vs. Kentucky 2024

 

If he expects you to run man coverage, he will call a play that is designed to beat man coverage. Same goes for zone. Beck can also adjust.

“Carson is really smart at the line of scrimmage,” McElroy said. “You have to hope they guess wrong a couple times and disguise your coverage because they’re really good at identifying what you’re in and how to exploit it.”