ESPN isn’t buying Falcons GM Terry Fontenot’s roster building

The Falcons have invested quite heavily into their roster under Terry Fontenot, whether that’s through free agency, the draft, or the trade market, but in five offseasons, ESPN isn’t buying what Atlanta’s GM has put together.

In their starting lineup projections, the Falcons ranked 26th, while the reigning division champion Buccaneers ranked 12th. It’s all subjective, but this is a glaring indictment of Fontenot’s work over the past couple of offseasons.

The club’s most valuable assets have turned into complete failures under Fontenot’s tutelage. His largest free agent signing, Kirk Cousins, didn’t even complete a full season’s worth of starts. And his highest draft pick, Kyle Pitts, looks unlikely to garner a second contract with the team.

There were plenty of flops too. His entire first draft class was awful outside of Drew Dalman, and the Falcons weren’t even able to re-sign the former fourth-round pick. The Matthew Judon trade was praised in the moment, but turned out to be a total miss.

Even the draft ‘hits’ come with asterisks. For instance, everyone loves Bijan Robisnon in Atlanta, but if you can’t admit that Jalen Carter, who plays a much more valuable position, would’ve been more impactful, you need to take off your rose-colored glasses.

However, to his credit, Terry Fontenot seemingly has put together an exciting, even if it is mostly unproven, young core. Zac Robinson, Chris Lindstrom, Drake London, Bijan Robinson, Darnell Mooney, and Michael Penix Jr. have the chance to put the weight of the team on their backs.

Most of the questions lie on the defensive side of the ball. There’s a lot of unproven talent on the defensive front. Rookies, Jalon Walker and James Pearce Jr., are expected to play significant roles. Xavier Watts and Billy Bowman are expected to begin the season as starters or eventually take over their respective starting roles as well.

While exciting individual pieces, it’s fair to question just how quickly Terry Fontenot’s vision will come together. That’s why ESPN has the Falcons roster ranked so low, but let’s dig into their analysis.

“Biggest strength: Running back. Bijan Robinson is fresh off a breakout campaign in which he finished top five among backs in snaps, carries, routes, targets, receptions, touches and yards, and added 15 touchdowns (sixth most). The 2023 No. 8 pick is one of the league’s top offensive playmakers and has a very good backup in Tyler Allgeier — his 2.24 yards after catch since being drafted is third best among 52 RBs with 300-plus carries. — Clay”

Bijan Robinson is squarely in the conversation for one of the five best running backs in football, something only Jessie Bates and Chris Lindstrom can say a bout their respective positions.

His uncanny ability to turn negative plays into positive ones is just one of the many special things about him. It feels like he’s banging on the door of a monumental campaign, similar to what Saquon Barkley did this past season.

While Bijan Robinson is clearly a strength of the Falcons, I don’t think he’s the biggest strength. I would expand that to either the offensive skill group or the offensive line. ESPN did it for other teams, so why not the Falcons?

Drake London has all the makings to become a household name in the NFL, especially with Michael Penix Jr. under center. Darnell Mooney and London were one of the best receiver duos in football, to go along with a menacing running back duo of Robinson and Tyler Allgeier. Plus, if Kyle Pitts can give the offense anything, the Falcons have the makings of a top 10 skill group.

The same goes for the offensive line, but it’s fair to wonder what the unit will look like with Ryan Neuzil instead of Drew Dalman. A great center can make up for a lot of deficiencies along the front.

“Biggest weakness: Cornerback. The Falcons’ cornerbacks have a chance to be fine, but there’s no one inspiring after A.J. Terrell. Mike Hughes returns as the No. 2 option after a solid 2024 campaign, Dee Alford is back as the primary slot, and Clark Phillips III is the top reserve on the perimeter. Atlanta didn’t make notable additions to a group that allowed the league’s highest catch rate while ranking 26th in pass breakups in 2024. — Clay”

I actually agree with this sentiment for the Falcons’ biggest weakness. I’ve said all offseason that Atlanta needs to add a starting-caliber cornerback. A.J. Terrell is obviously in a different tier than the rest. Mike Hughes may have been the surprise of the 2024 campaign, and I’m hopeful that he can continue that high level of play, but to completely ignore his past inconsistencies is a dangerous proposition.

The nickel position is also not littered with proven contributors. Rookie Billy Bowman, a college safety, will compete with Dee Alford, who was BBQ chicken last year, and Clark Phillips, who is better suited on the boundary compared to the slot.

If all of those things work out, this could be a solid group, but if Terrell or Hughes goes down for an extended amount of time, the Falcons’ cornerback room will look quite pitiful.

“X factor for 2025: Quarterback Michael Penix Jr. He was solid in his three starts (in five overall games) last season, with a 51.0 QBR that was almost in line with Kirk Cousins‘ efficiency as a starter. That’s a tiny sample, however, so we should think of Penix as mostly an unknown. The range of outcomes for the Falcons is vast, and it hinges more on Penix’s potential. — Walder”

I don’t even think this is an argument. The Falcons’ season won’t live and die on the pass rush, even if it was the biggest ‘to-do’ coming into the offseason. The 2025 campaign will ride on the left shoulder of Michael Penix Jr.

While we are all excited about the southpaw gunslinger, it seems like the Falcons staff and fan base haven’t even considered the possibility that Penix might not be great immediately. I’m high on him, and so are a lot of other people who are much smarter than me; however, playing quarterback in this league is quite hard, and to act like he was perfect in his three-game sample size isn’t doing his performance justice.

To his credit, Penix never flinched in the face of adversity and quickly adapted to what he saw on the field, but his accuracy was sporadic at times, and he didn’t play the best defenses the league had to offer in the Panthers, Commanders, and Giants.

“Nonstarter to know: Defensive lineman Ruke Orhorhoro. The Falcons traded up to take Orhorhoro in the second round of the 2024 draft, but injuries limited him to eight games in his rookie season, and he’s not penciled in to start in Year 2. Draftniks thought he was a quick, quality bull rusher who could also be stout against the run. Atlanta needs to be better on the interior after finishing 26th in run stop win rate last season, and a step forward from Orhorhoro — enough to challenge Morgan Fox and Ta’Quon Graham for a starting spot — would be a big help. — Schatz”

I imagine Ruke Orhorhoro will be a starter, but let’s just say he isn’t. Yes, the former second-round pick is someone to know. I have concerns about the Falcons’ rush defense, and Orhorhoro might silence all concerns. He didn’t play much as a rookie, but when Orhorhoro did get on the field, he immediately made his presence known in the run game. That will go a long way in 2025.