Erik Spoelstra finds reason for optimism despite Heat's season-worst performance

The Miami Heat have lost six of their last seven games, including blowing a double-digit lead in Milwaukee on Sunday and producing their worst offensive games of the season on Monday night.

Despite the tribulations, Heat coach Erik Spoelstra struck a somewhat optimistic tone after his team shot 32.1% overall and 17.5% from 3-point range in a 98-86 loss to the Atlanta Hawks on the second night of a back-to-back.

The Heat missed a ton of 3s they usually make.

“Our guys really competed tonight. Laid it all out there defensively. It wasn't easy, we were scrambling. They put up almost 150 last night. Holding them to basically under 100,” Spoelstra said. “But you do have to score. There's a reality to that. 

“I want our guys playing with confidence. There were some good plays to generate those open looks. It looked like we had a lid on the rim. We could not knock down some of those open ones, even some of the better shooters on the team. You just have to stay with it. 

“We're closer than what it feels, and that's the hard part."

Let’s focus on the offensive part of Spoelstra’s comments. He claimed the team generated open looks but just didn’t make them. Anecdotally, I found myself thinking the same thing, especially early in the game.

Andrew Wiggins, Alec Burks, Duncan Robinson and Kel’el Ware all missed makeable 3-pointers in the first half. The Heat missed 33 of their 40 3-pointers in the game, their worst output from distance this season.

The numbers back up Spoelstra’s claim and my takeaway. According to NBA.com’s tracking data, of the Heat’s 40 3-point attempts, 35 were considered “open” or “wide open,” meaning Miami’s shooters did not have a defender within 4 feet on a majority of their 3-point attempts. They made just five of those looks.  

Tyler Herro, who went 0 for 9 from beyond the arc, isn’t going to miss these very often.

It would be interesting to know how this game would have played out had Miami shot at an average clip from distance. It’s amazing how an offense can go from looking clunky to streamlined when players are simply making shots. The Heat’s offense has looked clunky since adding three new players at the trade deadline, but from a shot quality standpoint, this was actually one of their better games together.

“We're not getting the result we want,” Spoelstra said, “but there's things trending in a better direction.”

The issue with Spoelstra’s optimism isn’t the make-or-miss part of it. It’s that the Heat have been bad regardless of whether open shots are going in or not. 

Since Jan. 1, the Heat have slipped from 10th in offensive rating to 26th. 

They have blown multiple double-digit and fourth-quarter leads. The defense, at times, looks like less than the sum of its parts, and the team’s characteristic attention to detail can go missing at the worst moments. 

In other words, this team has a knack for finding ways to lose.

Making the shots the Heat are supposed to make is a good start, but there are plenty of other things that need to get cleaned up. Spoelstra is as good a coach as there is, so I tend to give him the benefit of the doubt. 

Hopefully, he’s seeing something more than I am, and all this talk of optimism isn’t just trying to make fetch happen.