The Detroit Lions are heading into what will likely be the most important season for the franchise in a long time. Head coach Dan Campbell and company are coming off two stellar seasons filled with record-breaking wins and stats, but now, they’re starting a new season without their long-term offensive and defensive coordinators.
Will the Lions still deliver? That’s a big question, and hopefully the team gets a good answer this season. The team came so close last season, but they lost to the Washington Commanders in the first postseason game, so they didn’t make it to the big game. But, that’s all in the past. Let’s move forward.
In a piece published on Wednesday, August 13, for ESPN, the publication’s staff looks at each NFL team and predicts the win-loss record and X factor for each team. It’s early to predict the entire season record, but they did their best based on ESPN’s research and numbers. So, let’s get into their prediction for the Detroit Lions, which is mixed.
GettyHead coach Dan Campbell of the Detroit Lions looks on against the New York Giants during the first quarter of the preseason game at Ford Field.
Detroit Lions and the Team’s X Factor
In the piece, ESPN explains their methodology for determining the win-loss records and X factors for each team. “To look at the bigger picture and just how good — or bad — every team could be this season, we turned to our ESPN Football Power Index (FPI),” they explain. “The FPI projected win totals for every team based on 20,000 simulations of the entire season performed by our ESPN Research team, but to find a high and low, we picked out the middle 90% of those simulations.”
For the Lions, the ceiling is 12-5, and the floor is 7-10. That’s actually a pretty good prediction.
So, what’s the X factor for the Lions? It’s so obvious what will make or break this team this season: the new coordinators.
“How fast will the Lions adjust to new coordinators Kelvin Sheppard and John Morton?” asks Eric Woodyard. “After a 15-win season in 2024, Detroit lost both coordinators — Aaron Glenn (Jets) and Ben Johnson (Bears) — to head coaching roles this offseason.”
Woodyard adds, “Now, Sheppard, Detroit’s leader on defense, and Morton, the offensive guru, are taking on key roles for a team with high expectations to reach Super Bowl LX. They both will be under the microscope, with Detroit playing a first-place schedule after winning its division.”
Another Win-Loss Projection for the Detroit Lions
Bleacher Report has their own thoughts on how many games the Detroit Lions will win in the 2025-26 season. In a piece published following the draft, Moe Moton predicts a 9-8 record for the Bears. That’s pretty brutal.
In the piece, Moton states that the “Lions will take a bigger fall with their daunting road schedule in a competitive division. They will hover around .500 in 2025.” That would be a difficult pill to swallow.
It would certainly hurt the Lions if their difficult road schedule would cause them to lose that much on the road. But, there’s a good chance the Detroit Lions will surprise everyone, as always, and somehow come out on top.
