Give Matthew Stafford his credit. When his team needs him the most, he has an ability like few others to come through and will his team to victory. He did it yet again Sunday at Lumen Field to steal victory from the Seattle Seahawks and move the Los Angeles Rams to a 4-4 record.
Despite not playing well through four quarters of regulation, Stafford found Demarcus Robinson deep for the 39-yard game winner.
Why Stafford played worse than the box score suggests
Stafford threw a single interception just before the end of the first half on a deep ball intended for Puka Nacua. Unfortunately, the Seahawks used this to build momentum and took the ball down the field to extend their lead to 13-3 going into halftime.
Pro Football Focus (PFF) credited Stafford with three other turnover-worthy plays for four total in this game, which means there appears to be a great deal of luck involved in more interceptions not showing up on the stat sheet.
Former Ram Ernest Jones dropped an interception that came right to him. Corner Riq Woolen also dropped a potential pick on a deep ball intended for Tutu Atwell that floated in the air and was well underthrown. There was also a dropped snap that the Rams were fortunate to recover.
Stafford is one of the luckiest quarterbacks in the NFL this season in terms of dropped interceptions. He has six, which leads Jameis Winston with five and Josh Allen, Baker Mayfield, and Jalen Hurts at four.
On the season (before Monday Night Football), Stafford ranks as PFF’s 24th of 26 quarterbacks with at least 193 drop backs. Only rookie Caleb Williams of the Chicago Bears and Gardner Minshew, who the Las Vegas Raiders benched for Aidan O’Connell, have been worse. Stafford has eight big-time throws to 14 turnover-worthy plays. He’s tied for third in turnover-worthy plays with Kirk Cousins behind Dak Prescott and Mayfield.
In terms of the other NFC West quarterbacks, Geno Smith has 10 TWP’s followed by Brock Purdy at eight and Kyler Murray at six.
Geno Smith was the better QB on Sunday
I was at Lumen Field on Sunday while Seahawks fans yelled for Sam Howell to come in the game. The truth is that, while Stafford benefitted from interception luck, Smith found himself on the unfortunate end. PFF dinged Smith for just two turnover-worthy plays despite throwing three interceptions on the traditional stat sheet. One of the picks was a dropped pass by Jaxon Smith-Njigba that landed in the hands of Rams safety Jaylen McCollough.
More impressive is the fact that Smith threw seven big-time throws to Stafford’s three. He was creating with his arm and finding his receivers downfield.
Smith was pressured 18 times on 43 drop backs, which means he was under duress for 42% of his passing snaps. On the flip side, this rate was 34% for Stafford.
Smith ranks as PFF’s ninth QB on the season using the same drop back thresholds. He’s accumulated 18 big-time throws, which is 10 more than LA’s signal caller.
What can the Rams expect from Stafford moving forward?
After tossing four touchdowns on Thursday night against the Minnesota Vikings, I thought that Stafford had turned a corner with Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua back in the fold. Instead, we saw a major step backwards in Seattle—and we’ve seen more bad than good play from the veteran this season.
The Rams’ young defense is rounding into form over the last few weeks. LA has enough fire power to get the job done on offense. But ultimately they go as Stafford goes, and he needs to be better if the Rams are going to make a serious run for the NFC West crown and push for the postseason.
