Dan Quinn’s big Commanders bet already looks overpaid

It was quite the turn of events for the Dallas Cowboys that Dan Quinn took the Washington Commanders to the NFC Championship Game in his first year as head coach. Granted, Quinn had a lot of assistance from new owner Josh Harris and general manager Adam Peters.

While Quinn has largely made good use of that budget, he made arguably the biggest overpay of 2025 free agency when he gave defensive lineman Javon Kinlaw a three-year, $45 million deal with $30 million guaranteed. To say that news sent shockwaves around the NFL would be an understatement.

That is a pretty significant investment in one player, and yet it did nothing to improve Quinn's defensive line, which checked in at No. 31 in Pro Football Focus' rankings.

"Washington's already shaky defensive line could be even worse in 2025," Zoltán Buday wrote. "The unit lost edge defender Dante Fowler Jr., who led the team in sacks, and released veteran interior defender Jonathan Allen this offseason. Of the edge defenders and interior defenders still on the team, Dorrance Armstrong owns the highest PFF overall grade from 2024 (65.3) but ranked only 56th among edge defenders."

Not a single mention of Quinn's new $45 million toy. Interesting.

Dan Quinn overpaying Javon Kinlaw is great news for the Cowboys

Even Ben Standig of The Athletic isn't convinced.

"The offseason plan was clear: Get bigger. Saquon Barkley dominated in three meetings, and many others ran over the Commanders," Standig wrote. "New linemen Javon Kinlaw and Deatrich Wise are massive humans, and second-round cornerback Trey Amos brings good size on the perimeter. Washington needs a healthy CB Marshon Lattimore and a motivated DT Daron Payne. Early signs show promise on both fronts. Still, there are scant scary pass rushers and bigger isn’t always better versus the run. Expect more 4-3 formations in hopes of slowing down ground games.

While overpaying is the name of the game in free agency, there is a reason the NFL landscape was flabbergasted by Kinlaw's deal. It'd be one thing if he tore it up with the Jets last season, but that wasn't the case.

A former first-round pick of the 49ers, Kinlaw turned a career-high 645 snaps into 4.5 sacks and two forced fumbles. His 68.2 pass-rush grade ranked 39th among interior defenders, while he checked in 38th with 30 pressures, 27th in defensive stops and 116th with a 50.2 run-defense grade, per PFF.

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Kinlaw has 9.5 sacks in five seasons, and while he's managed to play all 17 games the last two seasons, he played a combined 10 games in 2021 and '22 due to knee injuries. That adds another layer of risk.

Kinlaw is certainly capable of causing havoc but Quinn's 31st-ranked defensive line needs more than that. His numbers simply don't come close to justifying $30 million guaranteed, especially since it followed the release of stalwart DT Jonathan Allen, which saved $15 million in cap space.

It is possible that Kinlaw is a late bloomer. Generally speaking, interior defenders don't really hit their stride until their late 20s. However, it is far more likely that his contract blows up in Quinn's face than he becomes a buzzsaw that strikes fear into opposing offenses on Sundays.