As the Washington Commanders prepare for a high-stakes Wild Card clash against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, one thing is clear: stopping the Buccaneers counter run game is non-negotiable if the Commanders hope to pull off the upset. ESPN analyst Dan Orlovsky emphasized this during his breakdown of the matchup, stating, “Washington will not win this game unless they stop Tampa's counter [run game]” (per ESPN NFL)
The Buccaneers, led by quarterback Baker Mayfield, boast a balanced offense that utilizes the counter run game to exploit defenses and set up play-action opportunities. This strategy has been instrumental in Tampa Bay’s success this season, helping them secure the NFC South title and the No. 3 seed in the playoffs.
The Commanders enter this game as a three-point underdog, according to DraftKings Sportsbook, but this matchup is far from a foregone conclusion. Despite starting the season with a lopsided 37-20 loss to the Buccaneers in Jayden Daniels’ NFL debut, the Commanders have evolved into a dynamic team with a vastly improved offense and defense.
Daniels, widely expected to win Offensive Rookie of the Year, has brought a spark to Washington’s offense, combining mobility, decision-making, and an ability to make big plays under pressure. Complemented by a stout defensive unit bolstered by midseason addition Marshon Lattimore, the Commanders are no longer the team Tampa Bay faced in Week 1.
However, to win, the Commanders must address a critical weakness: stopping the run. Tampa Bay’s counterplay has been a bread-and-butter strategy, allowing the team to control the tempo and dictate terms to opposing defenses.
Tampa Bay’s counter run game thrives on misdirection, leveraging pulling linemen to create lanes for running backs and confuse defenders. This approach has been particularly effective against aggressive defenses, forcing them to hesitate and play on their heels. For Washington, whose front seven is built around speed and disruption, discipline and gap integrity will be crucial to containing Tampa’s ground attack.
Failing to stop the run could have a cascading effect, opening up opportunities for Mayfield to execute play-action passes and exploit mismatches in Washington’s secondary.
To counter the Buccaneers offense, the Commanders defensive line must dominate the trenches and avoid overcommitting to the first movement of the play.
Additionally, Jayden Daniels and the Commanders' offense must sustain drives to keep Tampa’s offense off the field. If Daniels can build on his strong rookie campaign and make plays against Tampa’s defense, Washington could keep the game close and force Tampa out of its comfort zone.
This game has the potential to be one of the most exciting matchups of Wild Card Weekend. While the Buccaneers are favored, the Commanders improvements and Daniels’ ability to rise to the occasion make them a dangerous underdog.
If the Commanders can neutralize the counter run game as Orlovsky suggests, they could very well be celebrating their first playoff victory in years. The stage is set for an epic showdown on Sunday night at Raymond James Stadium.
