Connor McDavid scored his 1,000th point on Thursday (Nov. 14), becoming the fourth-fastest player to reach that total in NHL history. 341 goals, 660 assists in 659 games. Few new words, if any, can be used to describe what he has achieved in his 10-year career. Time should be given and taken for him and us to reflect on what we are witnessing.
Okay, time’s up.
Now let me pose the question I asked my wife almost immediately after McDavid scored his 1,000th point. Can he reach 2,000?
That sounds absurd. Only Wayne Gretzky has ever reached the double millennium total. In fact, he almost reached the triple millennium mark finishing his career with 2,857 points. But I have a hunch that it might not be as unattainable as we think. So join me as we crunch some numbers and find out if McDavid will join Gretzky as a legend of the game as he already has in so many other ways.
Playing Enough Games
McDavid sits at 1,001 points after assisting on Darnell Nurse’s overtime goal on Thursday. He needs 999 points to reach 2,000. He currently averages 1.52 points per game in his career. At that pace, he will need 657 more games to reach 2,000 points.
On the surface, that appears feasible. 657 games is eight complete 82-game seasons. That means McDavid would only be 35. But this is where we begin to run into some issues. Nothing insurmountable, but concerns we must address.
McDavid would have to play in every single game for the next eight years to maintain the needed pace. Given that he has only played in three 82-game seasons in his career, that is improbable. He has already missed three games this season. We need a better metric to project how long it will take him to play the 657 games needed to reach 2,000 points at a 1.52 point-per-game pace.
Fortunately, we do not have to look far for the answer to that question. McDavid has played 659 career games to date spread out over 10 seasons. Let’s assume it will take him another 10 seasons to play 657 more games. Still he would only be 37. Barring some premature ending to his career or major injuries, McDavid’s talent and passion should empower him to reach that age.
Maintaining the Scoring Pace
We also cannot avoid the question of whether or not McDavid will maintain his 1.52 point-per-game scoring pace. The initial response is no. Players slow down as they age. Production decreases. We cannot rely on that 1.52 point-per-game pace, and, therefore, the 2,000 point horizon will move further and further away.
That maxim holds true for most players. But McDavid is not most players. He will finish his career as one of the greatest of all time. The word generational is used deliberately when describing him. As such, we should look to other generational talents for more accurate predictors of McDavid’s trajectory.
Gretzky played 20 seasons and retired at 38. Only in one season—his final—did he not score at at least one point per game. Sidney Crosby is now in his 20th season and has never finished with fewer than one point per game. In fact, at the ages of 35 and 36, he notched 93 and 94 points, his best totals since he scored 100 in 2018-19. Mario Lemieux played parts of 17 seasons and produced at a point-per-game clip 15 times.
We can count McDavid to be, at the very least, a point per game player for most of his career. We should not expect production to drop like it does for mere mortals. If you need further proof, we can look at Gretzky, Crosby, and Lemieux’s pace before and after the age of 31. Most people agree that players reach their apex around 30.
Gretzky averaged 2.26 points per game before he turned 31. After that, it dropped to 1.22. Crosby averaged 1.29 points before 31 and has averaged 1.16 since. Lemieux averaged 2.05 before 31 and 1.42 after. Okay, now that I am looking at these numbers, there is a definite drop in production after players turn 31. However, there remains hope for McDavid!
Gretzky’s absurd scoring was bound to regress as he aged and suffered more injuries. His decrease looks much more dramatic. The same can be said for Lemieux. Crosby’s pace is a more accurate comparison for McDavid because neither has reached the stratosphere of averaging at least two points per game.
Crosby’s scoring has decreased about 10% since he turned 31. Thus, we can project McDavid to drop from 1.52 to 1.38 points per game. We can then split his scoring up into the two eras—before 31 and after 31. He has five more seasons before he turns 31. He has played an average of 72 games per season the past five years. 72 games over the next five years is 360 games. At 1.52 points per game, he will notch another 547 points.
Okay, are you still with me? I know it’s been a lot of numbers. At this point, McDavid has scored 1,548 points and he just turned 31. He needs 452 more points to reach 2,000. We know his production will decrease to about 1.38 points per game. If he scores at that rate, he will reach 2,000 in another 328 games. We know he plays about 72 games per season, so he would need about four and a half more seasons after turning 31 to reach 2,000 points. Meaning, at about 35 or 36, McDavid should become the second player ever to reach 2,000 points.
Just Give It to Me Straight, Nick
I am so sorry for all the numbers. I hate math, but it was necessary for this piece. But if you were somewhat lost by the end, here is what you need to know.
McDavid can reach 2,000 points by the age of 35 or 36. Even accounting for a decrease in production and how many games he averages per season, his pace is enough to propel him there. His talent and scoring ability is generational, and we have seen what generational talents can do. We should not be surprised to watch McDavid do, well, generational things.
