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The Washington Commanders' $45 million newcomer is predicted to be a bust.
Hardly anybody believes the Washington Commanders got a good deal when they handed a contract worth $45 million to defensive tackle Javon Kinlaw, with some even predicting the 27-year-old will be a bust in 2025.
One of the main doubters, Bleacher Report’s Kristopher Knox, believes the “Commanders probably overpaid to land defensive lineman Javon Kinlaw. The 2020 first-round pick had a good year with the Jets in 2024, finishing with 40 tackles and 4.5 sacks. However, Washington gave him high-end starter money.”
Knox is convinced Kinlaw got his payday because “the Commanders were clearly eager to replace Jonathan Allen, who was released just before the start of free agency. However, Kinlaw, who had just five tackles for loss and 12 QB pressures in 2024, is unlikely to play up to his $15 million-per-year contract.”
The Commanders can hardly afford for Knox to be right and for Kinlaw to be a high-priced flop. Not when he’s being tasked with replacing Allen, a two-time Pro Bowler who could be dominant at times and was one of the few sturdy run defenders up front.
Commanders head coach Dan Quinn and defensive coordinator Joe Whitt Jr. view Kinlaw’s bulk as an ace in the hole for their attempts to shore up a feeble run defense. They’re also counting on the versatility of Kinlaw to change the picture along the D-line in key ways.
Javon Kinlaw Key to Commanders Plans
The Commanders have plans for Kinlaw. Strategies based on putting his 6-foot-5, 319-pound frame to good use at different sports.
It’s a smart idea because the Commanders need more brawn at the point of attack. More mass to set the edge and force runners back inside to the meat grinder of the defense.
Not having that option last season led the Commanders to giving up 4.8 yards per carry. Kinlaw is being counted on to be the immovable object Quinn can plan his run defense around.
Isolating his biggest defensive lineman against weak blockers, or shifting him to where an opponent likes to run most, will give the Commanders increased game-plan flexibility every week.
That’s the theory anyway, but there are more than a few reasons why Kinlaw could be set to disappoint and prove Knox right.
Commanders Have Reason to Worry About $45 Million Man
There are ample reasons why the Commanders have been slammed for signing Kinlaw. Reasons beyond the bloated contract.
Those reasons include the player surprisingly pledging to shed weight, despite bulk being his main selling point for this defense. A slimmed down Kinlaw will be a worry when the bigger version still struggled mightily against the run at times in 2024.
Like when six-time Super Bowl-winning former New England Patriots head coach Bill Belichick took Kinlaw to task. Belichick was appearing on the ManningCast for ESPN’s Monday Night Football, covering a matchup between the New York Jets and Buffalo Bills in Week 6.
He told the Mannings (h/t Awful Announcing) “I think we need to have a little talk with that Jets’ front over there on the sideline… The first thing I’d do is tell (Javon) Kinlaw to play lower and not stand up. I mean, they walked him off the ball on that cutback run… I think I’d start with that.”
"I think we need to have a little talk with that Jets' front over there on the sideline… The first thing I'd do is tell (Javon) Kinlaw to play lower and not stand up. I mean, they walked him off the ball on that cutback run… I think I'd start with that." – Bill Belichick https://t.co/d6gQBQDELN pic.twitter.com/km3jsgIh08
— Awful Announcing (@awfulannouncing) October 15, 2024
Poor technique had made Kinlaw vulnerable, but he also faced other challenges. Notably, a difficulty impacting plays run to the outside.
Those plays included outside-zone runs, something highlighted by Taylor Kyles of Patriots on CLNS Media. Kinlaw (54) lacked lateral agility and was taken out of plays too often.
The Jets have been one of the NFL’s more porous run defenses, with most of their big gains allowed coming on outside zone
The #Patriots called OZ once for a 1-yard gain in Week 3, but could have success if they target behind Javon Kinlaw and pick up NYJ’s blitzes
Plays like these signpost potential trouble for the Commanders regarding Kinlaw. He has the faith of general manager Adam Peters, who was part of the front office for the San Francisco 49ers when the NFC West outfit selected Kinlaw 14th overall in the 2020 NFL draft.
Peters is doubling down on his belief in Kinlaw. It’s a risk along a defensive front short on talent. If Kinlaw justifies Peters’ faith, the deal front-loaded with $30 million guaranteed, per Spotrac.com, will look like a bargain.
