This is an opinion column.
We’ve heard a version of this tune before.
Start hot, cool off and then spin the Wheel of Madness and see where Alabama basketball’s legacy will land.
Big bucks?
Or whammy?
This year’s Crimson Tide has a trajectory similar to the 2024 version with a few crucial distinctions. After peaking with a 21-3 record in mid-February, a 3-4 record to close the regular season ran the full emotional spectrum.
Last March, Nate Oats’ bunch went 4-4 from mid-March through the SEC tournament. It was banged up, off-balance and appeared headed for the dust bin.
Clearly, it didn’t.
Final Four, secured.
A year later, the Crimson Tide (24-7) was dropping faster than the NASDAQ until Saturday’s rebound at then-No. 1 Auburn. The 93-91 overtime win reframed the conversation as we enter the land of brackets.
In the pause between the scheduled phase of the season and the knockout rounds, now’s a good time to appraise the situation. Perhaps we can explain how, on the surface, mid-February through early March looked strikingly similar from the last two seasons.
And then we can look at why a complete view tells a more complex story.
The parallels aren’t imaginary as a banged up Alabama limped into Nashville last year and crawled out with a one-and-done dismissal. Florida offered a humbling 102-88 beating after Alabama arrived with a double-bye and the same No. 3 seed it secured for this week’s return. They weren’t healthy and regressing defensively after the Gators dropped triple figures in Tide beatings twice in a 10-day span.
An overtime win to close the regular season involved Arkansas in 2024 and Auburn in 2025.
Spooky.
But misleading when you look deeper.
That 92-88 OT win over the Hogs last year wasn’t exactly inspiring. And Arkansas had a losing record.
Auburn, conversely, was the No. 1 team in the nation Saturday. The game was high-level hoops where the Crimson Tide punched it out with one of the elite teams on their home floor.
That trip to Neville Arena capped one of the more punishing regular-season schedule stretches you’ll ever see. Where the final seven opponents last season averaged a No. 44 KenPom ranking, this year’s was No. 10 on average. Four of the seven games were against top-5 teams so a 3-4 mark isn’t exactly disastrous. Consider it played well enough to win at Tennessee on March 1 and the Tide was a razor wire from breaking even in that slog.
That said, expectations for this team isn’t breaking even. And winning four of seven from now on isn’t possible or championship level. This Crimson Tide group was preseason No. 2 in the polls and the pick to win the stacked SEC. It enters the league tournament No. 5 in the rankings and with the conference’s No. 3 seed.
So much of that preseason hype this season was based on what the core of this team proved was possible after staggering out of Nashville like so many before -- after a rough night on Broadway.
Something clicked after flying to Spokane and then to Los Angeles for the program’s most storied NCAA tournament run. It was a four-game white-knuckle experience that unlocked a different dimension of a team that had been, at times, top heavy.
You saw career nights from the likes of Mo Dioubate in the rock fight win over Grand Canyon.
Grant Nelson ascended to another level when toppling top-seeded North Carolina in the Sweet 16.
Then Jarin Stevenson and Nick Pringle joined Mark Sears in clutch moments beating Clemson in the Round of 8.
Sears was still the primary catalyst but the supporting cast took turns rising to the moment.
Until Saturday, Sears had been the primary offensive engine recently but his teammates picked him up Saturday in a way reminiscent of late March 2024.
Nelson went off in the first half and had his biggest offensive game in weeks.
Cliff Omoruyi played the best offensive game of his only Alabama season, scoring 15 points (his most since the season opener against UNC Asheville) while making all seven of his shots.
And freshman Labaron Philon was huge throughout and especially in overtime. His steal and layup midway through the period broke a tie and put the Tide on attack the rest of the way. The 15-point night was his fourth straight double-figure outing as the former high school All-American from Mobile is rounding into form at the best possible time.
Above that, the defense is playing closer to an elite level.
After allowing 110 points to Missouri on Feb. 19 (after surrendering 119 to Kentucky last Feb. 24), there’s been noticeable if not fully consistent improvement.
Alabama takes the No. 31 adjusted defensive efficiency ranking (via KenPom) into the postseason. That’s considerably better than the No. 111 ranking in the same category from a year ago when it caught enough fire to overcome that shortfall.
But Oats said he sees differences beyond that between his current group and last year’s Final Four team. He said it’s got more toughness. After losing to Florida last Wednesday, Oats said the 2024 team quit at times.
This one hasn’t.
It looks destined for a No. 2 seed when the NCAA tournament begins next week with only one new banner left to hang in Coleman Coliseum.
Alabama had to bear crawl through the muck and mire of a punishing final span of the regular season but emerged with a dose of momentum it never found until the NCAA Round of 64 last year.
The route taken to this moment wasn’t fully what you’d expect from a preseason No. 1 but everything remains on the table for a program that’s no longer burdened by a Final Four-free existence.
What tune will it play from here?
It struck a few similar notes from the last stanza but the two charts only look similar.
But seasons aren’t remembered for your tune mid-March.
The real jam starts now.
Nashville is calling.
