Casagrande: The stark reality behind Alabama’s 5-star transfer tease, future to expect

   

Four words followed by emojis of a bullseye, an elephant and an exclamation point sent Alabama internet sleuths into action.

Casagrande: The stark reality behind Alabama's 5-star transfer tease, future  to expect - al.com

It caused generational distress. Football fear.

What does it all mean?

Posted on star freshman receiver Ryan Williams’ Instagram story over a picture of him and fellow Tide rookie Jaylen Mbakwe sent a cryptic shiver down the spine of an already shaken fanbase.

Welcome to transfer portal season -- the modern-day evolution akin to National Signing Days of the past. Only this is messier, less controllable and this year, humbling to the mightiest power from that bygone era.

It’s disorienting.

Rattles loyalties and fans’ desire to grow attached to young stars when even the deepest connections can be uprooted.

This is about numbers and those behind them.

Neither look great for Alabama more than a week after the lid lifted last Monday from the free-agent gateway. As of Tuesday afternoon, 14 Crimson Tide players from the 2024 roster either took the exit ramp or hit the turn signal, indicating an imminent move.

Zero incoming, so far.

One must click “Load More” to find Alabama at No. 68 in the On3 recruiting portal ranking. Auburn, for context, is No. 3 there and in 247Sports’ transfer ranking with eight incoming. Mississippi is No. 1 in both with seven.

There’s still a long way to go in this and the Crimson Tide has several high-profile portal inhabitants set to visit. So the turnstile will spin both ways.

But that’s part of an ever-evolving reality that doesn’t have to be celebrated but must be accepted.

The days of stockpiling every top player at prime positions are over. The 2017 signing class isn’t possible in today’s environment. Alabama that year signed three of the top five receivers in 247Sports’ ranking. Each played their entire college career in Tuscaloosa before being drafted in the first round of various NFL drafts.

Insane in today’s context.

Adding NIL enticements to the loosened transfer rules evened a playing field long tilted toward the Alabamas of college football. Where the Crimson Tide might sign and retain one of the top receivers and a few pretty good ones, SEC peers now have the resources to split up these power combos.

 

The rich didn’t get richer.

 

The wealth is just being spread.

 

That brings us back to the questions of loyalty and attaching oneself to a given roster. It’s where Mbakwe and Williams’ Instagram roller coaster left the chronically online with red eyes and a mouth full of vomit.

Mbakwe, one of the earliest commits to the 2024 Tide signing class, was among the most outspoken salesmen of all things Crimson. He was huge in both of Williams’ commitments -- both before and after Nick Saban’s retirement -- as the two brought a unique bond to this program in transition. They even have a podcast together.

So it was jarring to see Mbakwe’s social media post from Monday that stated an intention to enter the transfer portal as a “business decision.” If someone committed since July 2022 could uproot after just one season, who else could join him?

How much is that loyalty worth?

“Bingo we got action,” came not long after Mbakwe’s post and the online tailspin commenced. Speculation began about which SEC rival was throwing cash at the five-stars who stuck with Alabama in the fallout of Saban’s mushroom cloud.

The hits were starting to pile up as former 4- and 5-star prospects left. Emmanual Henderson, Justice Haynes, Kendrick Law and Jahiem Oatis were out.

Four receivers were in the portal but cornerback Mbakwe would cut deep, not just for his potential, but for how committed he’d always been to the program.

The prospect of losing Williams, still more than a month shy of 18, would be a catastrophe.

An empire held onto their collective butts and refreshed Instagram until the virtual all-clear siren sounded. First, Mbakwe deleted his intent-to-transfer statement, then Williams dusted off a five-year-old NFL clip to reassure the anxious prisoners to an app.

“I think we ain’t done yet,” was Rams’ cornerback Marcus Peters’ response in a 2019 news conference and the video used by Williams’ to end the social media standoff/vigil.

Mbakwe then shared it along with a meme from The Wolf of Wall Street with the text “I’m not leavin’” over a photo of Leonardo DiCaprio.

The whole saga spanned less than 24 hours but spoke to the volatility of the moment. Rivals have money to spend and statements to make by pillaging Alabama’s locker room. The impending advent of revenue-sharing allows programs to take big swings at high-profile targets.

With an estimated $15 to $17 million of additional money about to flow through these football programs, the west is about to get even wilder.

 

It’s also worth asking how much all of this impacts relationships within the program. But this is the same locker room that saw offensive tackle Kadyn Proctor not only enter the portal last year, but transfer to Iowa for a few months before returning to Tuscaloosa and start every game he was healthy.

Business decisions.

Days like this are why Saban’s living that TV life instead of decoding Instagrams.

Another warning shot of the shifting landscape Kalen DeBoer and fans in crimson must navigate.

The Alabama fortress walls held this time but the attacking forces will be back

DeBoer went on defense and patched an artery of a bleeding roster with the pillagers still circling.

 
 

Just the reality on a multi-front battle of roster management as 2024 becomes 2025.