Can Saquon Barkley Outrun the Curse and Into NFL Immortality?

   

Saquon Barkley didn’t just do his job by carrying out his assignments in 2024 he played like a man possessed with something to prove.  By season’s end, after 16 bruising regular-season games and a deep playoff run with the Philadelphia Eagles, Barkley totaled 482 touches, the second-most in NFL history.

Yes, you read that right.  Saquon Barkley just put in the work that only one other NFL running back has before him.  Only James Wilder’s jaw-dropping 492-touch campaign for the 1984 Tampa Bay Buccaneers bested Barkley’s monumental load last seaon.   Amazingly Wilder did it without making the playoffs.

Whch begs the question that haunts every workhorse back: What’s the price of greatness?

The Curse of 370 – Real or Hype?


There’s a long-held belief in NFL circles known as the “Curse of 370” – a statistical warning sign suggesting that running backs who exceed 370 carries in a single season almost always suffer a major decline the following year.  It’s not a superstition either.  It’s data-backed. The list of victims is legendary:

  • Larry Johnson (2006): 416 carries, 1,789 yards – (2007) played in 8 games, 559 yards – never topped 900 yards again.
  • Shaun Alexander (2005): 370 carries, 1880 yards – NFL MVP – (2006) 896 yards, fractured foot, career spiraled.
  • DeMarco Murray (2014): 392 carries, 1.845 yards – (2015) 193 carries, 702 yards, fell off a cliff in Philly and only played two more seasons after that.
  • Jamal Anderson (1998): 410 carries, 1,846 yards – (1999) tore his ACL the next season.

But Barkley didn’t just flirt with 370 carries, he obliterated the spirit of the curse with 482 total touches, combining a full rushing workload with a heavy involvement in the passing game.                      

 Barkley by the Numbers – 2024


  • Regular Season:
    • 349 carries
    • 54 receptions
    • 403 touches
  • Playoffs:
    • 59 carries
    • 20 receptions
    • 79 touches
  •  Total:    482 touches
  • 2,504 rush yds, 353 rec yds

In an era defined by load management and running-back committees, those numbers feel almost mythical. But they’re real, they’re absolutely real. And they’re staggering and potentially dangerous.

 

Risk vs. Reward in 2025


The Eagles inked Barkley to a two-year, $41.2 million extension this offseason which was really a thank you more than anything.  It did make Barkley the highest paid running back in the league and the first one to average $20 million per year.  The two-year extension is tacked on to the three-year deal that was already in place.   Is he worth it?  Well, you saw the same things I did last year.  When you have a player who is a threat to score on any given play at any given time from any where on the field, I’d say yes, (in a Teddy KGB accent), pay that man his money.  There haven’t been many players who you can say that about.  As far as the Birds go, Desean Jackson was the only other Eagle in the history of the franchise (relax T.O.), that you could say that about.  Jackson scored eight touchdowns of 50-plus yards his rookie season.  Barkley busted seven house calls of 60-plus yards last year including three in the post-season.  Players like that who are a threat to score at any time from any where with the defense and every one in the stadium well aware of that, yet are still unable to stop it, are worth they’re weight in, well, you know.

The Truth


No running back in the Super Bowl era has touched the ball that much in one season and repeated that level of performance the following year.  And there’s a reason for that.

The body breaks down. The legs get heavier. The hamstrings tighten if they don’t pop. The wear and tear of getting drilled by NFL defenders upwards of at least 500 times in a seaon, and that number is soft, takes its toll.  Barkley also turned 28 on Super Bowl Sunday last February 9th.  According to NFL team analytics, running backs historically start to decline at the age of 27.  That’s just what the numbers say.

Where 482 Ranks


Here’s where Saquon now stands in the all-time workload pantheon (touches include rushing + receiving in a season):

Player Year Total Touches
James Wilder 1984 492
Saquon Barkley 2024 482
Larry Johnson 2006 457
Eddie George 2000 453
LaDainian Tomlinson 2003 451

That list reads like a Who’s Who for big name backs who lit up the league, and then faded fast.

Will the Eagles Protect Their Investment or Double Down?


Nick Sirianni and new OC Kevin Patullo may have no choice but to dial it back, until the don’t.  The Eagles have Will Shipley on the roster and they signed A.J Dillon in free agency to be RB2, both are capable of contributing. But if Philly falls behind in games or gets into another playoff push, do you really believe they won’t lean on No. 26?  Of course they will, its football and in the NFL winning is the only thing that matters.   The Eagles aren’t paying Barkley $20 million per year to coddle him.  They’re paying him $20 million per year to hopefully put up similar numbers to the ones he put up last year.  Is that doable?  Yes, its doable.  Has it been done before?  Hell no.  Of the nine players to ever rush for 2,000 yards in a season, none have ever done it again.  Baltimore’s Derrick Henry came close last year when he rushed for 1,921 yards on 325 carries.  Henry rushed for 2,021 back in 2020.  He’s also 31 years old and pretty much wrecks the curve as he’s the anomoly of anomolies when it comes to wearing down.  He just doesn’t.

It’s a delicate dance with running backs. One wrong step, and Barkley’s brilliance could be a one-year flash.

Here’s the Deal


The kid just completed one of the most demanding seasons in NFL history. No one questions his heart, his power, or his talent. But history says what he just did comes at a cost and in 2025, we’ll find out if he can outrun a curse that has humbled even the greatest of backs.

In 2025 we’re going to see what kind of cape Saquon Barkley wears.  History says not to tug on Superman’s cape.  But if Philly’s man of steel does pull off an encore performance that much resembles the first act?  We’re either going to need to rename the curse entirely or start shorting Kryptonite.