Caleb Williams' passing yardage labeled as a bet sure to cash

"Even if he matches his passing yards total from last year, this bet will cash."

Fanduel.com had Williams' over/under for yardage at 3500.5 and DraftKings set it at 3,550.5.

Considering Williams appeared to be feeling his way through things at the start of his first season with 174 passing yards or less in three of the first four games, and threw for 150 yards or less five times, it would definitely appear his total will top out well above the 3,500 total.

In three years as Johnson's quarterback, Jared Goff never threw for less than 4,438 yards in a season. He threw for 3,245 yards in 2021 when Johnson had a bigger role in the offense but wasn't yet the coordinator. The Lions fired coordinator Anthony Lynn during the season that year.

Johnson's first official season as coordinator was 2022. Goff's passing yardage total climbed from 3,245 to 4,438 that season.

Whether Williams can make a similar jump depends on numerous extraneous circumstances, like the running game's success, the offensive line's performance and opponents, but one thing that must be remembered about last year's total was it came in Shane Waldron's sputtering attack.

There's quite a difference between the failures of that attack and what Johnson is used to doing.

Before jumping to conclusions about Williams' total going to the over, remember also the well-known NFL saying that Montez Sweat repeated last month at his OTAs press conference: "Football is a game where it’s not if you’re going to get hurt but when."

Injuries can always drop that total and Dak Prescott was a perfect example last year.

There is no such thing as a sure thing.

But Williams did go over the total last year when it was set at 3,400.5 yards.

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