The Denver Broncos have done poorly in the state of Florida in September, so going on the road to take on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers doesn’t bode well. The Broncos need to win a few key matchups to help out their chances.
Let's examine the key matchups that'll dictate this game.
Broncos OL vs. Bucs Front 7
The Broncos' offensive line has struggled. Despite that, ESPN has Denver 14th in pass-block win rate and 12th in run-block win rate for the first two weeks. Pro Football Focus has 78.8% of the pressure Bo Nix has faced being on the offensive line, the 21st-highest out of 31 qualifying quarterbacks.
24.2% of the pressure on Nix is his fault, which is the seventh-highest amount. So the Broncos' offensive line has had issues, particularly from the left side, but not all of Denver's foibles can be blamed on the starting five.
Part of the problem has been communication issues and well-designed simulated pressures from opposing defenses. The Broncos will face these issues against the Bucs and the Todd Bowles defense.
These pressure looks have led to one side of the line having three blockers for one defender while the other faces three defenses with two blockers. In such instances, the Broncos lead the NFL in pressures allowed as they have struggled to read the pressure and properly shift their blocking to handle it.
The Broncos have also lost individual matchups, which compounds their other issues as a unit. Left tackle Garett Bolles is tied for sixth-most pressures, while right tackle Mike McGlinchey (who's now on injured reserve) is tied for 17th at their position.
Ben Powers ranks eighth, and Quinn Meinerz 11th for guards, while Luke Wattenberg has the sixth-most pressures allowed for centers. The Broncos clearly have to figure something out, especially with the talented defensive front the Bucs have.
Broncos Secondary vs. Bucs WRs
On the defensive side, the Broncos' secondary faces the challenge of slowing down the Bucs' talented wide receiver corps. Each individual matchup, such as Mike Evans vs. Patrick Surtain II, Chris Godwin vs. Ja’Quan McMillian, and Jalen McMillan vs. Riley Moss, presents its own unique challenges, keeping fans engaged in the potential outcomes.
Moss vs. McMillan is probably the easier matchup for the Broncos to win. McMillan is a rookie and has five targets in two games, with only two catches. Moss hasn’t been great, but he has been solid in coverage and matches up well with the rookie receiver.
Evans vs. Surtain is going to be the marquee matchup. After his game against the Pittsburgh Steelers, it wouldn’t be shocking to see Baker Mayfield challenge Surtain to try and draw some penalties. While he didn’t allow many yards in either game, Surtain has been called for some costly penalties.
Mayfield and Evans have good chemistry, and he's a physical receiver. This will challenge Surtain, especially in staying true to his technique, avoiding getting there early and drawing penalties.
Godwin vs. McMillian will be crucial, as the Bucs wideout has 200 yards with 15 catches on 16 targets and two touchdowns. Of those 200 yards, 164 have come as the slot receiver on 10 catches, nine of which were first downs or touchdowns.
McMillian has allowed all four of his targets to be caught, but for only 28 yards. If the Broncos want to force mistakes or force the Bucs off the field, they need McMillian to step up and shut down Godwin.
None of these matchups are going to be easy, but if the Broncos want to pull off the upset, they need to win them to put themselves in a position to succeed. It'll take a lot more than the matchups listed here for Denver to come out on top, but winning them will be a start.
