Broncos HC Sean Payton Shares Real Thoughts on Patrick Mahomes

It’s one of the more incredible “sliding doors” scenarios in NFL history, and one that gives an incredible insight into the mind of Denver Broncos head coach Sean Payton.

The most recent excerpt from the upcoming book “American Kings: A Biography of the American Quarterback” by ESPN’s Seth Wickersham tells the story of how Payton, as the head coach of the New Orleans Saints, came within minutes of selecting Texas Tech quarterback Patrick Mahomes with the No. 11 pick in the 2017 NFL draft.

As Wickersham’s book details the process by which Payton decided to pick current Broncos quarterback Bo Nix at No. 12 overall in the 2024 NFL, it flashes back to Payton creating a formula to evaluate Mahomes in 2017 that essentially values not taking a sack over everything.

After Mahomes’ score came in at a sparkling 8.1 — meaning 8.1 percent of the time something negative happened when he was on the field — he wowed Payton in a face to face meeting. Seven years later, Nix would score a 2.1 using Payton’s formula.

It’s the best score of any quarterback Payton has evaluated in 7 years.

“Payton typically gives a prospect a 17-page packet of offensive designs the night before a meeting,” Wickersham wrote. “Payton would test his recall the next day. Mahomes was the gold standard: He knew everything. Payton was floored and asked him how he did it. ‘I’m pretty good with tests like that,’ Mahomes said.

“On Draft Day in 2017, everything was going Payton’s way. The tenth pick arrived. It belonged to Buffalo. The Bills valued more picks over a new quarterback. Mahomes was still available. Payton was ten minutes from his guy. What happened next, of course, is lore only in retrospect. The Chiefs traded with Buffalo. As soon as it happened, Payton knew. He respected Andy Reid. Mahomes changed Reid’s life and legacy, turning him from a good but underperforming playoff coach into a first-ballot Hall of Famer. Payton is now on his second team, trying to re-create old magic.”

More Telling: Who Payton Didn’t Pick in 2017

Payton saw Mahomes as a replacement for Saints quarterback Drew Brees, who was in the twilight of his career. When Mahomes went off the board to the Chiefs, where he’s won 3 Super Bowls in 7 seasons as the starter, Payton changed course and drafted Ohio State cornerback Marshon Lattimore.

Lattimore was named NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year and is a 4-time Pro Bowler.

What’s perhaps the most telling part of the 2017 draft for Payton is who he didn’t pick at No. 11 overall. Despite being in the market for a quarterback, Payton passed on Clemson’s Deshaun Watson, who went to the Houston Texans one pick later at No. 12 overall.

After making 3 consecutive Pro Bowls in his first 3 seasons as a starter from 2018 to 2020, Watson sat out the entire 2021 season with the Texans due to a contract dispute and off field issues.

He was traded to the Cleveland Browns before the 2022 season, and since then has played in just 19 of a possible 51 regular season games due to suspensions or injuries, going 9-10 as the starter.